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I hate the taste of crow.
1 posted on 11/07/2012 9:08:44 AM PST by Raycpa
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To: Raycpa

I hear ya. ; )

I said all along that Nate Silver is the ONLY poll analyst worth listening to. Ignore EVERYONE else.


2 posted on 11/07/2012 9:11:32 AM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: Raycpa

Ditto. I thought he had to be full of sh*t, but damn, his accuracy was uncanny. He was dead-on.


3 posted on 11/07/2012 9:11:43 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: Raycpa

Instead, curse Barone.......


4 posted on 11/07/2012 9:15:43 AM PST by Red Badger (Lincoln freed the slaves. Obama just got them ALL back......................)
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To: Raycpa

RCP final poll average of each & every state also predicted each and every state correctly including Florida.

RCP ran a very simple algorithm - called average.

Nate Silver added a lot of weightings and secret sauce and what not.

Both of them ended up with the same result.


7 posted on 11/07/2012 9:19:43 AM PST by freeboy70
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To: Raycpa

Wow, I’m surprised to see so many naive people on Free republic of all places. Nate Silver did not predict the outcome, he used his position to influence it. It came out to be about the same, because that’s what they’ve been working towards this whole time, by discouraging Republicans, harassing them at the polls and rigging voting machines.


8 posted on 11/07/2012 9:21:59 AM PST by Kleon
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To: Raycpa
Yep...and we have to learn our lessons here on FR about polls.

In 2008...optimism among many (not me) reigned supreme. All we heard about was oversampling of dems...and anecdotal evidence about record turnout at their individual polling places. Republican turnout as described as mammoth.

Forward to 2012. SAME story...except this time I expected a landslide. All we heard about was "That poll is crap. D+8? YEAH RIGHT!!!" All we heard yesterday was story after story of record turnouts.

It all turned out to be crap. Any FReeper in ANY future elections who talks about a poll being garbage because of their D sample...I will simply remind them of yesterday.

9 posted on 11/07/2012 9:22:55 AM PST by NELSON111
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To: Raycpa

Two surprises for me that threw my analysis off.

1. I never guess D turnout would be almost as high this time as last time. WRONG.

2. I assumed there would be movement towards the challenger as the race ended. WRONG.

I’m still not exactly sure how Silver knew both of those things, especially the second one, or how Axelrod and Plouffe were so confident the election was totally in the bag.

I give them my grudging respect though. Those guys nailed it. I hate them all, but they nailed it.


12 posted on 11/07/2012 9:33:23 AM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Raycpa

Let’s not go too far here. Silver may have his own model, own way of doing things, but when it comes down to it, all Silver did was create a weighted average of poll results. Silver was right, not because he’s a genius, but because the polls were right.


17 posted on 11/07/2012 10:03:19 AM PST by Conscience of a Conservative
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To: Raycpa

I too said to listen to Silver and was attacked for it. Do NOT question big data and predictive analytics. It is very powerful.


19 posted on 11/07/2012 10:33:03 AM PST by montag813
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To: Raycpa

Only means he was in on the fix. Rats KNEW they would get however many votes they needed from Detroit, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Philadelphia, etc. Until voter ID is the law of the land this will continue - rats will never lose another election that they care about winning.


27 posted on 11/07/2012 2:58:34 PM PST by Some Fat Guy in L.A. (Still bitterly clinging to rational thought despite it's unfashionability)
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