Then why do some polls are sampling D+1, while others are at D+11?
Sounds to me like they simply don’t have a clue.
Turnout is key. If Republicans and conservatives are as angry as we make ourselves out to be, then we have the numbers to flip this election. If that motivation is flagging, then we were never in the game to start with.
We’ll know very soon.
PPP blamed “ We underestimated the amount of voter anger out there” for it’s missed call in Wisconsin.
How do they now justify being wrong, after a +8 Dem Sample last night?
You are exactly right. We cannot afford to simply dismiss polls we don't like as biased or inaccurate, label anyone who expresses concern about the election as a troll, then sit back and expect everything to be just fine tomorrow. We need to assume this is going to be a close race, get out there and vote, and convince as many of our friends and neighbors as possible to vote. We cannot take anything for granted. Turnout is key.
Bingo.
And that is one of the problem with most of the polls today: they simply assume an electoral turnout either identical to that of 2008 or, in numerous cases, one in which Democrats turn out in even greater numbers this year than four years ago (e.g. - CNN's last poll: D+11)
There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that any such thing will happen this year, and in fact: there is a great deal of evidence pointing to a contrary result.
In 2008, the same polls also oversampled Democrats relative to Republicans. But that year, Democrats actually turned out in record numbers for Obama, and a statistically significant number of Republicans crossed over to vote for him as well.
Neither of those things is happening this year. I know this to be true because (a) I am working on the campaign and have access to internal polling that validates my conclusions; (b) I have studied statistical polling methodology for over 30 years, and wrote my graduate thesis on the subject; (c) broader demographic studies this year have displayed a far more powerful move of registered voters away from Democrats than away from Republicans (and toward independents); and finally (d) Romney's lead among those independents is both nationwide in scope and insurmountable.
So relax, folks. Pray (it helps). And VOTE!!!!!