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Dem leaning polling turnout/party ID samples are zot bait
Vanity

Posted on 11/05/2012 6:08:44 AM PST by George N

At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll I think a lot of the tooth mashing over the Dem leaning polling samples is off. I hope I'm wrong but I think the outrage is mostly a result of a lack of technical understanding. It's always dangerous when amateur analysts start tearing into poll internals. This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim. There's a reason pollsters historicLly do not weight by party ID.

That doesn't mean that Dems will outperform or even match 2008 turnout. They won't. But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year. You'll notice that in most polls where Romney leads big amongst indies the party ID gap is the most favorable for Dems. When the indie vote is closer the party ID is tighter. Again, when GOP leaning indies call themselves Republicans they tighten party ID. When they call thenselves indies Romney wins indies bi but suffers in party ID.

I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year. Bu it doesn't change he sxientific math. Pollsters know with fair certainty what the sex/age/racial composition of the electorate will be. So when you weight that way and get a scientifically representative sample the top line number will be right. At least with the 95% lvl of confidence.

This isn't to say a massive GOP turnout couldn't fly under theradar or that pollsters don't struggle with urnout models and intensity. This is gonna be a close election but the polls point to a soight Obama edge. Let's not fool ourselves. We need an upset.


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KEYWORDS: polls
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At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll I think a lot of the tooth mashing over the Dem leaning polling samples is off. I hope I'm wrong but I think the outrage is mostly a result of a lack of technical understanding. It's always dangerous when amateur analysts start tearing into poll internals. This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim. There's a reason pollsters historicLly do not weight by party ID.

That doesn't mean that Dems will outperform or even match 2008 turnout. They won't. But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year. You'll notice that in most polls where Romney leads big amongst indies the party ID gap is the most favorable for Dems. When the indie vote is closer the party ID is tighter. Again, when GOP leaning indies call themselves Republicans they tighten party ID. When they call thenselves indies Romney wins indies bi but suffers in party ID.

I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year. Bu it doesn't change he sxientific math. Pollsters know with fair certainty what the sex/age/racial composition of the electorate will be. So when you weight that way and get a scientifically representative sample the top line number will be right. At least with the 95% lvl of confidence.

This isn't to say a massive GOP turnout couldn't fly under theradar or that pollsters don't struggle with urnout models and intensity. This is gonna be a close election but the polls point to a soight Obama edge. Let's not fool ourselves. We need an upset.

1 posted on 11/05/2012 6:08:47 AM PST by George N
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To: George N

At least you know what’s coming. But your ignorance is showing. You give far to much credit to the accuracy opand intelligence of the pollsters. Take 2010 or 1980. Now to go pop some pop corn and IBTZ.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 6:12:12 AM PST by Frapster (There you go again....)
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To: George N

BS


3 posted on 11/05/2012 6:12:38 AM PST by Bobalu (It is not obama we are fighting, it is the media.)
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To: George N
2 posts since 07

nope, no troll here

4 posted on 11/05/2012 6:12:53 AM PST by Revelation 911 ("The whole contrivance imploded last night ..in in one great rancid...public fart")
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To: George N

Over sampling is the LEAST of the polls problems.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 6:13:10 AM PST by DManA
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To: George N

For your entertainment, Freepers:

MSNBC on the night of the Wisconsin Recall leading with their TOO CLOSE TO CALL crap and quickly realizing their over-sampled Dim polls were wrong. (But then cherry-picking results that were favorable to Zero from the SAME poll.)

ENJOY!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pchwcD4IPzs


6 posted on 11/05/2012 6:14:06 AM PST by ShovelThemOut
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To: George N

Total waste of bandwidth.


7 posted on 11/05/2012 6:14:17 AM PST by Post5203 (I bought 6 marines a beer at a bar recently and not one said thanks. I won't do that again.)
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To: George N

Then why do some polls are sampling D+1, while others are at D+11?

Sounds to me like they simply don’t have a clue.

Turnout is key. If Republicans and conservatives are as angry as we make ourselves out to be, then we have the numbers to flip this election. If that motivation is flagging, then we were never in the game to start with.

We’ll know very soon.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 6:14:43 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: George N

Thanks for warning us about amateur analysts with your amateur analysis.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 6:14:48 AM PST by over3Owithabrain
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To: George N

You’ve made exactly two (2!) posts since you joined FR in 2007. This kind of strains your credibility here.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 6:15:35 AM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: George N

So I lack understanding and I am dangerous to question a poll of North Carolina that is D+13?


11 posted on 11/05/2012 6:15:41 AM PST by barmag25
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To: George N
Um, George, I sat through a mini-seminar on public polling (as opposed to private and corporate polling, which has a very clear consequence if you are wrong) by none other than Kellyanne Conway, a noted GOP pollster.

Among the things she told us:

*Public pollsters heavily oversample urban areas, and therefore de facto get more "Dems" even when they aren't identified as Ds.

*Public pollsters make up samples they "assume" are right, but have very little experience anywhere outside of the beltway.

*Public pollsters, due to the larger samples, employ people who are NOT pollsters but simply questioners. The result is, she said, they get quite lazy. They don't probe to get the real sentiment that will affect the vote (and therefore MAKE the vote) but they accept the first answer given. Likewise, this laziness translates into a tendency at the end of the polling time (out of frustration) to take whomever they get and label that person "a Hispanic," or an "over 40" or whatever. She was adamant that not just political internal pollsters but that corporate pollsters HAVE to be accurate, while the big firms can be close on some, hit on one or two, and tout the one or two they hit on and ignore the five they miss on.

12 posted on 11/05/2012 6:16:24 AM PST by LS
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To: George N

TIME TO BURN THIS MOTHERBLEEPER DOWN!


13 posted on 11/05/2012 6:16:56 AM PST by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: George N

Do you drive a Subaru by chance?


14 posted on 11/05/2012 6:17:18 AM PST by mn-bush-man
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To: George N

Did Obama just have back to back +30,000 rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania? No.

The media’s spinning all kinds of garbage, Jim Cramer’s seriously suggesting Obama will pick up Georgia, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina.

That’s blatant propaganda on their part. Who cares what their “polls” have to say?


15 posted on 11/05/2012 6:17:18 AM PST by Shadow44
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To: George N

16 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:10 AM PST by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: mn-bush-man

More than likely a prius or a bicycle.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:15 AM PST by barmag25
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To: over3Owithabrain

Hard to accept an analysis by one who can’t be bothered to proofread their own post. Sloppy composition.

‘Teeth mashing.” Indeed.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:31 AM PST by FirstFlaBn
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To: George N

I am just going on anecdotal information but when you live in a small town you can definitely get a feel for what is going on.

Obama voters are not energized. They have no signs, they have no bumper stickers.

Many former Obama voters are planning not to vote rather then vote for Romney.

Romney voters are eager to vote, proud if they have already voted.

You can tell who probably voted for Obama because they don’t say who they voted for, Romney voters are proud.

On a last note, even college students aren’t all in love with the Revolutionary this time.


19 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:31 AM PST by tiki
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To: over3Owithabrain

Hard to accept an analysis by one who can’t be bothered to proofread their own post. Sloppy composition.

‘Teeth mashing.’ Indeed.


20 posted on 11/05/2012 6:18:51 AM PST by FirstFlaBn
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To: George N

“...teeth mashing...”
I think you mean “teeth gnashing”...
Product of the govt school system.


21 posted on 11/05/2012 6:19:03 AM PST by matginzac
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To: Frapster
Romney is drawing 30,000 to rallies in Pennsylvania and Ohio, which is far more than Obama draws.

Pennsylvania and Ohio

22 posted on 11/05/2012 6:20:03 AM PST by Ray76
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To: George N

posting dem talking point BS is the reason FR is moving slow.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 6:20:10 AM PST by barmag25
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To: George N
Sounds to me the Dems are the ones fleeing in larger numbers to the indie ranks:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/dem-registration-down-in-key-states-132150.html

24 posted on 11/05/2012 6:20:10 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: George N

No, Gallup and Rasmussen are two pollsters who do extensive polling on party ID.

Most of the other polls do their polling and then weight the results based upon their assumptions as to the party ratio of those who will actually vote.

It is that latter group that is coming up with the big Democrat advantage—because they are putting it there.

Gallup, which does the biggest polling on party ID has reported a major swing to the GOP.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 6:21:00 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: LS

Folks I’m sure we can debate polls forever. The poster gave us some info. The fact is we can win this election in part because many pollsters have Romney leading or tied. But some on here attacking every negative poll are being pollyannas as well.


26 posted on 11/05/2012 6:21:24 AM PST by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: barmag25

I saw a Prius in Minneapolis yesterday with a Romney/Ryan bumper sticker. That was a good omen for what’s coming tomorrow, that and Ryan drawing an overflow crowd of 10,000 at the MSP airport yesterday.

Bye-bye Barry!


27 posted on 11/05/2012 6:21:55 AM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: George N
George:

I'll go with Michael Barone. He knows what he's talking about, and you don't. If the polls were right in an election like this we'd be talking about things like Carter's disastrous second term and President Kerry.

The only poll that doesn't care about party affiliation had Romney up by 5 or six before they suspended polling. We'll know for sure tomorrow. See ya in two years.

28 posted on 11/05/2012 6:22:18 AM PST by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: over3Owithabrain

my thoughts exactly.

The ONLY way Obama wins is if there is an over the top to to point of becoming obvious voter fraud.

Repubs have to always win by 5%. Figure 2-3% fraud then enough to not force a recount - of which the Communists will win (always) by finding votes in the trunk of a 51’ Ford located in some barn out in the country somewhere.


29 posted on 11/05/2012 6:22:26 AM PST by Hammerhead
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To: Shadow44

>> Jim Cramer’s seriously suggesting Obama will pick up Georgia, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina.

Jim Cramer is one of my favorite prognosticators, because he is *reliably* wrong. You can literally take his predictions to the bank, as long as you invert ‘em first. :-)


30 posted on 11/05/2012 6:22:43 AM PST by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: George N

Bunk.


31 posted on 11/05/2012 6:23:07 AM PST by DJ MacWoW (My faith and politics cannot be separated)
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To: Andrei Bulba
Well, it is a big deal. This is like "global warming." It's either real, or it's not. Either one, some, or most of the pollsters are right, or one, some, or most are wrong.

So much of our political lives right now are shaped by "gee, what do other people think?" that when Romney wins, it must totally discredit these organizations as being part of the D machine.

32 posted on 11/05/2012 6:24:07 AM PST by LS
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To: Admin Moderator; George N
two posts since 07 - and a hit and run thread with no replies

- zot this clown please

33 posted on 11/05/2012 6:24:45 AM PST by Revelation 911 ("The whole contrivance imploded last night ..in in one great rancid...public fart")
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To: Mase
George N likes to post once every five years.
34 posted on 11/05/2012 6:24:52 AM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: Mase
Gallup Polled 7,000 LV and found GOP plus 3.

How many did you poll?

35 posted on 11/05/2012 6:25:50 AM PST by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: George N

I recall many news articles from just before the 2010 midterm elections, about how the number of registered Democrats was dwindling, some places by as much as 30%, when you factor that with the poll samplings for a 2008 Democrat turn out, and sprinkle in the evangelicals (24 Million) who stayed home in 2008, I have to think another tsunami is in the making.


36 posted on 11/05/2012 6:26:25 AM PST by swamprebel (a Constitution once changed from Freedom, can never be restored.)
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To: George N
When the person that posted something doesn't comment or respond to comments I dismiss them as “troll” no matter the subject.

So off you go now.

37 posted on 11/05/2012 6:26:48 AM PST by count-your-change (You don't have to be brilliant, not being stupid is enough.)
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To: George N
This year it seems like laymen want to start weighting polls at their own whim.

I won't call you names for making this kind of ignorant statement.

Whatever you might think of them, Dick Morris and Michael Barone are NOT "laymen". They are professionals, and conducting, analyzing, and critiquing polling is what they do for a living.

So, how about you? What is YOUR professional background in statistics, polling, and political analysis?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like YOU are the layman in the room.

38 posted on 11/05/2012 6:26:48 AM PST by John Valentine (Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: George N
"I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year."



Where have you been the last four years?

Most of us are voting against Obama not "for" a Republican.

The RNC is dead to most of us but the country is going to come alive tomorrow God willing.

It's no wonder the pols seeking Democrat and Republican affiliation show more D's than R's. Just wait and see where the Independants vote tomorrow.

For a little incite, Google Images the words; Chic-fil-A crowds.
39 posted on 11/05/2012 6:27:38 AM PST by John 3_19-21 (Desperation leads to curious events)
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To: George N
At the risk of being an "Eeyore" and called a troll

I'll just call you "roadkill" instead.

40 posted on 11/05/2012 6:28:26 AM PST by Admin Moderator
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To: ScottinVA

PPP blamed “ We underestimated the amount of voter anger out there” for it’s missed call in Wisconsin.

How do they now justify being wrong, after a +8 Dem Sample last night?


41 posted on 11/05/2012 6:28:51 AM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: ShovelThemOut

Thanks for posting that. I’m a nervous wreck. That gave me some comic relief.


42 posted on 11/05/2012 6:29:09 AM PST by GrannyAnn
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To: George N

When you look at the poll numbers by STATE, the there is a consistent swing of 10-14% toward Romney from ‘08 results EXCEPT IN OHIO. The. vote is 10% more Republican this year, Romney wins Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Colorado. Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania are within 1.5%. If Romney, stretches the swing to 12%, he wins all three of those. Even Rasmussen shows today that Blacks are disproportionately higher percentage of early voters. And Romney has held serve with the early vote.

Voter ID in polling is not as important as the result shown and how it corresponds to the national trend. If you want to know what Ohio is going to do, look at Florida. Those two states usually finish within 2% of each other, and with a 5% lead in FL, there is no way Romney loses OH.


43 posted on 11/05/2012 6:30:01 AM PST by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: George N
"I don't know why Republicans are less likely to ID as such this year."



Where have you been the last four years?

Most of us are voting against Obama not "for" a Republican.

The RNC is dead to most of us but the country is going to come alive tomorrow God willing.

It's no wonder the pols seeking Democrat and Republican affiliation show more D's than R's. Just wait and see where the Independants vote tomorrow.

For a little incite, Google Images the words; Chic-fil-A crowds.
44 posted on 11/05/2012 6:30:39 AM PST by John 3_19-21 (Desperation leads to curious events)
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To: ScottinVA
Turnout is key. If Republicans and conservatives are as angry as we make ourselves out to be, then we have the numbers to flip this election. If that motivation is flagging, then we were never in the game to start with.

You are exactly right. We cannot afford to simply dismiss polls we don't like as biased or inaccurate, label anyone who expresses concern about the election as a troll, then sit back and expect everything to be just fine tomorrow. We need to assume this is going to be a close race, get out there and vote, and convince as many of our friends and neighbors as possible to vote. We cannot take anything for granted. Turnout is key.

45 posted on 11/05/2012 6:30:39 AM PST by GreenHornet
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To: George N

“But the Dem party ID advantage in many polls is the result of Soft GOP voters being more likely to ID as indies this year.”

Repubs have not dropped the party to become indy’s like your theory suggests. That may have been the case back in ‘08 but, the GOP has a party ID edge this year, hence all of the legitimate gripes by GOP’ers. gallup shows more people identifying as Repubs than Dems (you have to scroll to the bottome). So polls that produce D+10 samples are wildly innacurate.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

I read an article last night that almost verbatim made the point you made but it was written back in september before the new party ID demographics had come out. It maybe made sense back then but not with what we know now


46 posted on 11/05/2012 6:30:45 AM PST by Shamrock498
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To: Ray76

I resist posting negative things because no one can handle it. Sadly the crowd sizes don’t tell the whole story. I’ve attended huge rallies with wildly enthusiastic crowds for example for W, and he lost the state.

We like to forget on here that unfortunately there are huge masses of Americans who line up to vote dem no questions asked, or who are enthusiastic for Obama. This is the demographic revolution he is bringing about. This is why Romney isn’t ten points ahead. And we all have relatives who keep defending Obama and it’s maddening because he doesn’t deserve it.

If Obama wins I liken it to the outrage and tragedy of Clinton’s reelection and sadly I know it can happen.

Still, my prediction is a close to comfortable Romney win. Comfortable if places like Michigan, Minn, PA really are in play. If close, watch for the hispanic vote in places like Nevada, Ohio, etc. To screw us.


47 posted on 11/05/2012 6:31:07 AM PST by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: ShovelThemOut

Thanks for that!


48 posted on 11/05/2012 6:31:09 AM PST by Professional
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To: George N
It's always dangerous when amateur analysts start tearing into poll internals.

Do you mean “amateur analysts” such as Dick Morris who has been predicting a Romney landslide because of consistent Democrat oversampling skewing the results. Last night on FOX he claimed to have been working “professionally” as a political consultant for several decades.

49 posted on 11/05/2012 6:32:19 AM PST by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: George N; TheOldLady; Old Sarge; darkwing104; Darksheare; 50mm; Arcy

Here since 2007 and this is only your 2nd post? I’m beginning to smell the ozone coming in on the wind. I suggest you get your flame retardant jeans washed, as this could be a warm day for you (as long as it lasts...)

Oh, and Arcy, here’s a way to get more bandwidth...


50 posted on 11/05/2012 6:33:30 AM PST by bcsco (Bourbon gets better with age...I age better with Bourbon.)
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