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Posted on 07/23/2012 5:19:02 PM PDT by BenLurkin
The United States is headed toward another real estate collapse — and it will be worse than the one we just experienced, according to famed economist and New York Times best-selling author Robert Wiedemer.
During his recent appearance on the Aftershock Survival Summit, Wiedemer provided startling evidence to support his claim that real estate prices could fall another 32 percent.
That would wipe out another $64,000 in equity from the average home.
Before you dismiss Wiedemer’s claims as impossible or unrealistic, consider this: In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists foresaw the first collapse of the U.S. housing market and published their research in the book America’s Bubble Economy.
Now Wiedemer is back with an even stronger warning.
He says that all of the positive housing news lately misses one critical item, and it’s the one that will sink the housing market sometime in late 2012 or early 2013.
Wiedemer states that the media (and most notably the National Association of Realtors) wants us to believe that housing prices have bottomed, and that right now is the perfect time to go out and buy a home.
They will point to a leveling-out of home prices and a sudden lack of inventory as an indication that the housing market is heating back up.
One “expert” goes so far as to say that real estate “has not just bottomed, but is booming” and talks of reported bidding wars on homes in locations like Seattle, Austin, and Palo Alto.
But Wiedemer believes that all of this positive news for the housing sector ignores the one factor that will cause housing prices to plummet: Interest rates will eventually rise.
(Excerpt) Read more at moneynews.com ...
Insofar as the banks are sitting on a lot of REO, the incentive is to keep the interest rates down for the short term. After all, the cost of keeping a $ 250,000 foreclosed mortgage on the books is only about $ 625 per year (250K x 1/4% interest paid on savings). When the owned inventory is gone, the rental rate on interest will rise as will savings account interest. Supply/demand.
They didn’t even mention skyrocketing property taxes and utilities...and ever more strict codes to comply with...with each mandatory upgrade requiring permits and licensed contractors who themselves are over-burdened with strangling regulations.
Ain’t this news about 3 years after the fact?
What will that do to rents? I own several rental properties and looking for more.
THe answer is in employment/ unemployment.
Which is growing?
Remember.... small business did not build that...
THe answer is in employment/ unemployment.
Which is growing?
Remember.... small business did not build that...
The market needs to be left alone and not propped up by the Barney Franks and Zeroes of this world. If the market forces prices down, so be it.
In some cities 50% of the mortgages are underwater and people cant sell their houses to move out up or down. So they aren't looking to relocate or trade up.
Add tax increases (and loss of tax deductions for mortgage interest) on anyone making middle income and above, and student loan debt to the mix and where will you find buyers for all those homes the boomers need to dump over the next 10 years, and that the builders want to build?
It just seems that demographics favors a shrinking home buyer market
Makes me want to buy land. I’d much rather own fertile acreage than gold or any other investment. First, I love the idea of being ‘away from it all’ as much as possible (the more crazy the world becomes - as I see it - the more this is true). Second, if you have land, you can grow food etc. You can’t eat gold.
The government with the most powerful military in the world by far....
...won’t let the interest on it’s huge debt go up easily.
So I think it will be a while before rates go up much.
...according to famed economist and New York Times best-selling author Robert Wiedemer.Wait, what?
Japan and Europe will buy bonds at low rates if that is what will keep the US military defending their interests.
China will if it will keep us out of their way.
Little countries will fall in, of course.
I’m not saying it in a positive way
A big military with big, foolish, debts is not a good thing- it’s what those ‘compassionate’ Keynesians are turning us into though with their good intentions.
“just don’t see the market as flooded. maybe there’s not enough people who can get the credit to buy something, but the population isn’t decreasing.”
More foreclosed properties could flood housing market, pushing values down
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2012/07/more_foreclosed_properties_cou.html
The Foreclosure Forecast for 2012 - Get Ready for a “Flood” of Foreclosures
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7MVyQUgu0Y
ping
Whatever the outcome, it sure has been an all-out war on the middle class.
FUBO.
David Stockman - Talks Obvious Problems in Conversations with Casey
LOL !
These problems are much more severe and Bernanke ought to be strung up by mobs in the streets. JMPO but the Fed is pursuing idiotic policies and Mr B is motivated by corruption and extreme greed.
RE prices are still going down in many states.
Thanks
Wow. That's hard to believe.
I just looked at a fairly new house in Arizona that sold for 248,000 in 2005, and is now 77,000.
It will be an even better buy in 2014, when it appraises at $60,000.
Banks have hundreds of thousands of underwater mortgages in their portfolios. They're releasing dribs and drabs, hoping that prices will continue to firm.
I think that’s the first anyone in the thread has mentioned this issue. I too wonder how much “shadow inventory” the banks still have, either because they don’t want to have to recognize the loss, or because the paperwork is so fouled up they haven’t been able to foreclose.
I have a house close to mine that I’m 99% sure is in this situation. It should have been foreclosed upon years ago.
” Banks have hundreds of thousands of underwater mortgages in their portfolios. They’re releasing dribs and drabs, hoping that prices will continue to firm. “
Yep. I just started looking at REO’s. Some people I know started buying 1 or 2 years ago, and are now up to 1/3rd upside down.
” I too wonder how much “shadow inventory” the banks still have, either because they don’t want to have to recognize the loss, or because the paperwork is so fouled up they haven’t been able to foreclose.”
They have plenty, especially in northern ans southern California. There are many people living in 2-5 million dollar homes who haven’t made a mortgage payment for 2 or more years.
An entire industy has sprung up that teaches homeowners how to stay in their homes. Usually, a lawyer files paperwork with the(alleged) lender of record, requestiong 50-100 pieces of paperwork(paper chase). They demand proof that the mortgage bank is the REAL owner. This can take a year or more. Meanwhile, the home owner pays no mortgage or rent.
That usually puts a further delay in the process.
If the borrower wants to stay in the home, those delinquent payments can be capitalized in the new loan. Under HAMP, the rate can be as low as 2%.
The vast majority of the mods I've seen are done for borrowers with a documented hardship. Those trying to game the system are easy to spot, but they still slip through.
With apologies to Samuel Clemens, there are 3 kinds of lies:
1. Lies
2. Damn Lies
3. HAMP modifications
But the Dems will never audit the fed -- not in a million years. Too much bribery and corruption.
Did anybody listen to Jesse Ventura unloading on our totally corrupt political class last night on Coast to Coast AM ____ ?
” With apologies to Samuel Clemens, there are 3 kinds of lies:
1. Lies
2. Damn Lies
3. HAMP modifications “
Sam would have agreed : )
Missed it, but it must have been a hoot.
If it is indeed a real truthful audit of the entire Federal reserve, Fed hacks will be going away — for a long time.
The Fed is too all powerful, too much in control of everything. They are also in existence as a result of bribery and high level corruption since 1913. Some people even say they have been implicated in several deaths along the way (e.g. JFK) and even the FBI is daunted by their almost absolute power.
As usual your insight to California banks appears to be right on target.
Last month, we met the daughter of a church friend. She had worked for a couple of the big banks in N California. The last bank had her get her real estate license to help them in short sales. She saw a big business opportunity in the “lower priced”* homes in default.
She and a few other ex bankers formed a realty company specializing in the short sales of the “lower priced”* homes in the North Bay counties.
I asked her why no bigger/formerly more expensive homes in the just under under 1 million $ or over 1 million $ bracket were being dumped or discounted.
She said that the big banks’s top officers were told behind
closed doors not to start dumping the big and formerly expensive homes until after the November election.
I asked her, who told the bankers not to dump the expensive homes behind closed doors. She said, she couldn’t tell me. I asked if the evil Republicans told the bankers. She said no.
” I too wonder how much “shadow inventory” the banks still have, either because they don’t want to have to recognize the loss, or because the paperwork is so fouled up they haven’t been able to foreclose.”
They have plenty of the formerly High $ homes, especially in northern and southern California. There are many people living in 2-5 million dollar homes who haven’t made a mortgage payment for 2 or more years.
*The lower priced homes in the N Bay were the ones selling over $500 to $750 K and were now selling for half of the price before Pelosi/Reid’s recession hit.
I’ve had to reduce rents on 2 of my commercial rentals because I don’t want them sitting empty and neither does my insurance company. There were 358 big and little sawmills in Humboldt County in the 50s and now there is less than 20 and 60% of todays local payroll are taxpayer funded including the hospitals...
” *The lower priced homes in the N Bay were the ones selling over $500 to $750 K and were now selling for half of the price before Pelosi/Reid’s recession hit.”
There are entire towns in California where the REO’s are so numerous, that it appears half of the homes for sale are REO’s.
” *The lower priced homes in the N Bay were the ones selling over $500 to $750 K and were now selling for half of the price before Pelosi/Reid’s recession hit.”
There are entire towns in California where the REO’s are so numerous, that it appears half of the homes for sale are REO’s.
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