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Space weather expert has ominous forecast
LA Times ^ | May 4, 2012, 7:26 p.m. | Amina Khan

Posted on 05/05/2012 7:09:10 PM PDT by null and void

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To: null and void
We're doomed!

That may be true, but it's not like "we're all going to die!"

51 posted on 05/05/2012 9:20:59 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Let us prey!)
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To: null and void

Must be all that global warming.


52 posted on 05/05/2012 9:22:15 PM PDT by jayrunner
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To: gorush
There was a solar storm back in the mid to late 1800’s that fused telegraph devices...a similar storm today would do far more damage and it’s only a matter of time.

The Carrington Super Flare. It enabled telegraph operators to send messages on telegraph wires with the batteries disconnected.
53 posted on 05/05/2012 9:22:18 PM PDT by aruanan
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To: Errant

Excellent image! Thanks!


54 posted on 05/05/2012 9:25:52 PM PDT by Graewoulf ((Dictator Baby-Doc Barack's obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND U.S. Constitution.))
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To: Errant

I have always loved that pic! Thanks!


55 posted on 05/05/2012 9:38:43 PM PDT by wjcsux ("In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." - George Orwell)
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To: null and void

I’m a’skeered.


56 posted on 05/05/2012 9:54:33 PM PDT by 4buttons
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To: Huskrrrr

    "But Wait! I'm not dead yet!"

57 posted on 05/05/2012 11:47:06 PM PDT by BraveMan
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To: Revolting cat!

Looked like my butt the other night after a very bad stomach ache. We posted No-Smoking signs around the neighborhood, just to be sure.

On second thought, it also looks like Nancy Pelosi’s face and Helen Thomas’s face.

Guess they all have something in common.


58 posted on 05/06/2012 12:20:57 AM PDT by MadMax, the Grinning Reaper
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To: null and void
I feel moved once again to report the apprehensions of the learned doctors of the Academy of Lagado, as reported by Lemuel Gulliver:

Their Apprehensions arise from several Changes they dread in the Celestial Bodies. For Instance; that the Earth by the continual Approaches of the Sun towards it, must in Course of Time be absorbed or swallowed up. That the Face of the Sun will by Degrees be encrusted with its own Effluvia, and give no more Light to the World. That, the Earth very narrowly escaped a Brush from the Tail of the last Comet, which would have infallibly reduced it to Ashes; and that the next, which they have calculated for One and Thirty Years hence, will probably destroy us. For, if in its Perihelion it should approach within a certain Degree of the Sun, (as by their Calculations they have Reason to dread) it will conceive a Degree of Heat ten Thousand Times more intense than that of red hot glowing Iron; and in its Absence from the Sun, carry a blazing Tail Ten Hundred Thousand and Fourteen Miles long; through which if the Earth should pass at the Distance of one Hundred Thousand Miles from the Nucleus or main Body of the Comet, it must in its Passage be set on Fire, and reduced to Ashes. That the Sun daily spending its Rays without any Nutriment to supply them, will at last be wholly consumed and annihilated; which must be attended with the Destruction of this Earth, and of all the Planets that receive their Light from it.

59 posted on 05/06/2012 12:45:15 AM PDT by dr_lew
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To: jjotto
There is a hope however. There was a period of years on FR where a ‘Lincoln was gay’ story appeared several times a year but thankfully those seem to have fallen out of fashion.

These seem to have been replaced by "Obama is straight" stories lately.

60 posted on 05/06/2012 1:04:33 AM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: lightman
Travelling at the speed of light it takes 8 minutes for solar “events” to reach the earth.

But charged particles don't travel at the speed of light. Much slower.

61 posted on 05/06/2012 1:33:08 AM PDT by El Gato ("The second amendment is the reset button of the US constitution"-Doug McKay)
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To: DB; All
"Apparently the larger solar storm events tend to happen when the sun is more quiet..."

I don't believe that's correct. Solar flares are associated with sunspots, and sunspot size correlates to the size and strength of the associated magnetic fields and therefore potential flare strength. Large sunspots are just as likely (as far as size distribution) when the sun is highly active, and there tend to be more of them.

Here's an image from May 1, 2003, during the peak of Cycle 23, a fairly active cycle. Note the very large sunspot near the middle of the solar disc. It's many times Earth-size.

You can read the archived spaceweather.com page here. It discusses the flare potential for those spots.

I found this interesting paper on solar storms. It contains a table of "great solar storms", and while the 1859 event was during a low cycle, many of the others were during very active cycles.

What is true is that low cycles like 24 and (most likely) 25 can still produce large sunspots, and severe solar weather.

For those interested in comparing the current solar cycle with historical data, I recommend keeping an eye on the Layman's Sunspot Count. Despite the name, it's a very professional attempt to compare current solar activity with activity during the Maunder and Dalton minima - something the "official" counts are doing poorly.

62 posted on 05/06/2012 7:22:13 AM PDT by PreciousLiberty (Pray for America!!!)
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To: null and void

Oh, come on.

We’re supposed to believe that massive solar flares will cause communications to be cut off in the mi


63 posted on 05/06/2012 8:19:15 AM PDT by southernnorthcarolina ("Better be wise by the misfortunes of others than by your own." -- Aesop)
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To: PreciousLiberty

If you look at your interesting paper, nearly every very large event, > 1000 nT, occurred with sunspot counts of around 100 or less.


64 posted on 05/06/2012 10:05:57 AM PDT by DB
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To: Fresh Wind; jjotto
jjotto ~ There is a hope however. There was a period of years on FR where a ‘Lincoln was gay’ story appeared several times a year but thankfully those seem to have fallen out of fashion.

Fresh Wind ~ These seem to have been replaced by "Obama is straight" stories lately.

*ouch*

65 posted on 05/06/2012 11:06:49 AM PDT by null and void (Day 1202 of our ObamaVacation from reality [and what dark chill/is gathering still/before the storm])
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To: DB; All
"If you look at your interesting paper, nearly every very large event, > 1000 nT, occurred with sunspot counts of around 100 or less."

I actually didn't see sunspot count presented as part of that data. However, if you look at page five of this paper, it does have a nice plot of severe geomagnetic storms versus sunspot cycle. That data directly contradicts your hypothesis, as in four out of five cases the largest storms occurred at or near the peak of active cycles. The second largest storm occurred right at the peak of Cycle 22, when sunspot counts were around 200.

I'd be interested in any papers you can reference that came to the conclusion that the largest storms are likelier during weak cycles and/or low activity. It is a contention of the paper that I referenced above that the peak for solar storm activity comes somewhat after cycle maximum, however that says nothing about the distribution of the largest storms. Also I think this paper is referencing CIR storms as opposed to CME storms.

66 posted on 05/06/2012 5:56:35 PM PDT by PreciousLiberty (Pray for America!!!)
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To: null and void

bflr


67 posted on 05/07/2012 7:24:59 AM PDT by cajunangel
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To: null and void

68 posted on 05/07/2012 7:29:57 AM PDT by tomkat ( FU.baraq <font finger=middle>)
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To: null and void
With the possible exception of Enoch, no one gets out alive...

Are you forgetting Elijah?

69 posted on 05/07/2012 7:36:07 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (There is no such thing as "renewable" energy, the Second Law of Thermodynamics remains in force.)
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To: Carry_Okie

Yes, I had.


70 posted on 05/07/2012 7:43:41 AM PDT by null and void (Day 1203 of our ObamaVacation from reality [and what dark chill/is gathering still/before the storm])
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To: Huskrrrr

I’m pretty pale. Do you have SPF 1,000?


71 posted on 05/07/2012 8:11:35 AM PDT by hummingbird (I am Breitbart.)
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To: OldNavyVet

“We can all thank God for giving us a planet that’s been around for about 4.6 billion years ... with no end in sight.”

Oh, man - we’re overdue!


72 posted on 05/07/2012 8:17:25 AM PDT by hummingbird (I am Breitbart.)
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To: hummingbird

Coming right up!


73 posted on 05/07/2012 8:18:23 AM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: jongaltsr

“ARe wE DEAd yeT?????
/Can’’t tell becAUSe of WHat I’m sMOKin.....
LET me know.”

THEY KILLED KENNY!


74 posted on 05/07/2012 8:20:29 AM PDT by hummingbird (I am Breitbart.)
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To: Errant
BIG NEW SUNSPOT

I've seen that before, it's mold on a block of cheese....

75 posted on 05/07/2012 8:23:48 AM PDT by Hot Tabasco (My 6 pack abs are now a full keg......)
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To: gorush

“There was a solar storm back in the mid to late 1800’s that fused telegraph devices...a similar storm today would do far more damage and it’s only a matter of time.”

But, we’ll still be able to use the Internet, right?

We’ll still be able to post on Free Republic, right?


76 posted on 05/07/2012 8:24:20 AM PDT by hummingbird (I am Breitbart.)
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To: Bernard Marx
“Such catastrophes have happened in the past and will happen again given the passage of time.”

So, Romney better damn well win!

We've already had a 4-year catastrophe...

77 posted on 05/07/2012 8:29:10 AM PDT by hummingbird (I am Breitbart.)
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To: InvisibleChurch

“ha ha to you, sun!”

How about that, sun.

What do you say about that, stupid?


78 posted on 05/07/2012 8:33:46 AM PDT by hummingbird (I am Breitbart.)
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To: southernnorthcarolina

“We’re supposed to believe that massive solar flares will cause communications to be cut off in the mi...”

That’s what I was thi


79 posted on 05/07/2012 8:39:56 AM PDT by hummingbird (I am Breitbart.)
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To: HereInTheHeartland
The sun is too dangerous. We should reduce our use of the sun.

Careful citizen. Big Solar doesn't like such talk.

80 posted on 05/07/2012 8:57:23 AM PDT by Drill Thrawl (The United States of America, a banana republic since 1913)
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To: lightman

Will aluminum (nay tin) foil help any?


81 posted on 05/07/2012 9:13:49 AM PDT by carriage_hill (((.)))
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To: Bernard Marx

[ We’re doomed!

Yes, eventually we are. It may be a sunstorm, a supervolcano, an asteroid or comet strike, a ferocious pandemic, climate change (yes, catastrophic change happens, but not for the reasons the Gorebots say) or something presently unpredictable. Eventually the human race will either be destroyed or reduced to a small remnant. Such catastrophes have happened in the past and will happen again given the passage of time. ]

Strip mine the earth and use those resources to colonize space, it is the only way to ensure our survival and the survival of every remaining species on earth.

Because in 1+ billion years all life on earth will be dead anyways....


82 posted on 05/07/2012 10:22:24 AM PDT by GraceG
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To: Errant

Oh my gosh! A Syphoon!

We are doomed!


83 posted on 05/07/2012 10:23:33 AM PDT by Pilgrim's Progress (http://www.baptistbiblebelievers.com/BYTOPICS/tabid/335/Default.aspx)
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To: null and void

Another bid for attention from the DQM (Drama Queens Media)?


84 posted on 05/07/2012 10:25:34 AM PDT by Lady Lucky (Non-compliant, not govt-issued, and not voting for Romney.)
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To: GraceG
Strip mine the earth and use those resources to colonize space....

As I always say, the meek shall inherit the Earth -- but not the mineral rights!

85 posted on 05/07/2012 10:53:25 AM PDT by Bernard Marx
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To: Pilgrim's Progress; Hot Tabasco
:)


86 posted on 05/07/2012 11:38:03 AM PDT by Errant
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To: null and void
UPDATE:

BIG SUNSPOT: One of the largest sunspot groups in years rotated over the sun's northeastern limb this weekend. With a least four dark cores larger than Earth, AR1476 sprawls more than 100,000 km from end to end, and makes an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. Amateur astronomer Alan Friedman sends this picture of the behemoth from his backyard in Buffalo, NY:

"AR1476 is firecrackler," says Friedman. Indeed, the active region is crackling with impulsive M-class solar flares. Based on the sunspot's complex 'beta-gamma' magnetic field, NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours. There is also a 5% chance of powerful X-flares.

"This one is going to be fun as turns to face us!" predicts Friedman. He might be right.

87 posted on 05/07/2012 11:50:16 AM PDT by Errant
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To: All; winoneforthegipper
Sump'n Else,

1. The moon is leaving perigee, and in an orbital position that seems to exacerbate quakes.

2. There is a coronal hole created by the sunspot above that is about to face the earth. British Astrophysicist Piers Corbyn believes coronal holes facing the earth, contribute to increased earthquake activity.

3. We're experiencing a lull in 5+ magnitude quakes. Recent lulls have been followed immediately by significant quakes and activity.

Recent Average Day:

MAP 5.2 2012/05/03 18:08:06 17.479 -85.137 24.0 NORTH OF HONDURAS
MAP 5.1 2012/05/03 16:14:19 -5.492 152.231 57.7 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 5.0 2012/05/03 15:20:28 39.058 29.129 9.7 WESTERN TURKEY
MAP 5.2 2012/05/03 10:19:37 40.513 98.568 13.0 GANSU-NEI MONGOL BORDER REGION, CHINA
MAP 5.5 2012/05/03 10:09:36 32.814 47.712 10.0 IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
MAP 5.0 2012/05/03 04:59:57 21.430 -108.759 10.2 OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR

Activity for the Last 4 Days:

MAP 5.3 2012/05/07 14:15:15 41.561 46.710 11.9 AZERBAIJAN
MAP 5.6 2012/05/07 04:40:30 41.541 46.766 23.3 AZERBAIJAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAP 5.0 2012/05/06 12:40:59 -13.883 -75.793 59.1 CENTRAL PERU
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAP 5.5 2012/05/05 20:23:31 -21.403 -174.126 3.9 TONGA
MAP 5.2 2012/05/05 20:12:34 38.185 141.667 50.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MAP 5.0 2012/05/04 16:23:44 2.009 89.675 14.5 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

I know y'all don't want to hear it; I'm just sayin'...

88 posted on 05/07/2012 12:16:15 PM PDT by Errant
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To: Errant
Nope I am convinced there is more to it then just plate movement and stress build up.

I am still hanging my hat on the gravitational anomalies thought...lol

89 posted on 05/07/2012 1:47:16 PM PDT by winoneforthegipper ("If you can't ride two horses at once, you probably shouldn't be in the circus" - SP)
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To: winoneforthegipper
UPDATE:

INCOMING CME: Sunspot AR1471 erupted on May 7th, producing an M1-class solar flare and an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather lab, the cloud will reach Earth on May 9th at 13:40 UT (+/- 7 hours).

Minor but should be interesting to see if there is any effect on the current lull in 5+ earthquakes.

90 posted on 05/07/2012 8:00:03 PM PDT by Errant
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