Posted on 05/02/2012 8:50:44 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
UPDATE: Forecast humor on steroids, here
You can’t make up FAIL like this. First this story in the BBC Today:
Now let’s have a look at the official Met Office forecast for April, issued on March 23rd, 2012:
Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12
SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period. The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 197-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
CONTEXT:
As a legacy of dry weather over many months water resources in much
of southern, eastern and central England remain at very low levels.
Winter rainfall in these areas has typically been about 70% of average,
whilst observations and current forecasts suggest that the final totals for
March will be below average here too. The Environment Agency advises
that, given the current state of soils and groundwater levels in these
areas, drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.
Read the entire forecast here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf
Saved copy here: Met_Office_A3-layout-precip-AMJ
Obviously, the power sucking supercomputer they recently put online needs to be bigger.
It is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second to feed data to 400 scientists and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power more than 1,000 homes.
GIGO me thinks. This isn’t the first time this has happened:
Met Office admits they botched snow warning
And then there’s the BBQ summer fiasco, which prompted replacement of the seasonal forecasts with the shorter term one you see above:
Met Office ends season forecasts – no more “BBQ summers”
Maybe they should stick to DART (Digital Advanced Reckoning Technology) which can do the job of making forecasts equally well, using less power, less space, and less money: 
h/t to Charles the Moderator and Adrian Kerton over at CA in comments.
Hire some REAL scientists....
Think they need to apply a little correction factor?
This is also the wettest spring in SE Texas (Houston IAH) in the last 12 years. April is giving us a pause though and fears of 2011 drought conditions.
Now that’s what I would call CLIMATE CHANGE
Now that’s what I would call CLIMATE CHANGE
Now that’s what I would call CLIMATE CHANGE
Now that’s what I would call CLIMATE CHANGE
Can they weather the storm of ridicule coming their way? lol
They don't really give a rat's ass. Their checks or in the mail every month no matter how bad they are at their jobs. It's all 'Government Work".
In the real world, if you miss a sales, profit or loss forecast by that much, you better be looking for another job.
I suppose. Gov grants do get cancelled though.
The British Met Office is the same as our National Weather Service. They are all government employees. They live off the budget, not grants.
And they seem to be really wrong a lot!
I'd look at the obviously politically correct leadership who publish these reports, not the grunts collecting the data.
If I were King, heads would roll. ;~))
Yo, Earnest,
See page two blog, my work, nationalforestlawblog.com, Sun Hotz license plate.
How can you jave drought and floods at the same time
Lack of sunspot activity lifts or reduces upper level humidity. Less humidity, less rain.
The less rain hardens the ground or is sandy in florida, it turns to powder. Then after weeks, the dust is pickeed up into the air by winds and droplets of rain are formed by the dust.
Then te rain begins, hits the hard pan soil and the soild takea a while to receive it. Even a sponge has to take a moment to get wet to work.
Thus, the flood starts for the soil can’absorb the downpour.
That is how you get floods and drought at the same time. It takes weeks of rain to off balance the lack of rain.
Pau Pierett
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