Posted on 01/27/2012 12:37:31 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
fyi
Heresy! Witch! Burn him!
So, if I have this right (and I usually don’t) a day that would be 85 degrees would now be 77? WHERE DO I SIGN UP FOR THAT!!!
Um
Holy crap?
Bad news for the resurgent wine industry in northern Europe and the UK.
What did he do go back to the seventies Time pieces?
Will our temperatures in North America decline in Celsius or Fahrenheit?
I don’t want to switch systems...
cooler times comeing, break out the insulated underwear.
What in the world is going on with global temperatures?
*****************************************EXCERPT***************************************
Multiple indicators show global temperatures headed down this month, and fast.
by Joe DAleo, CCM, AMS Fellow
As shown above (see the datapoint in the square box), the UAH AMSU daily temperatures are the coldest for the globe at 600mb of all the years tracked since 2002 (warmest 2010, previously coldest 2009).
The new Dr. Ryan Maue reanalysis based global temperature anomalies has declined dramatically this month almost a full degree Celsius!
Forecasts for temperature 8 days in advance are appended to the reanalysis values.
Is this a reflection of the stratospheric warming pushing the cold to middle latitudes?
The cross section suggests that initial warm burst has ended. Often they repeat as the cold reloads and dumps again.
Not as bad as the coming imposition of Sharia Law.
First Estimate of Solar Cycle 25 Amplitude may be the smallest in over 300 years
*********************************EXCERPT********************************************
Guest post by David Archibald
Predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 was a big business. Jan Janssens provides the most complete table of Solar Cycle 24 predictions at: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html
Prediction activity for Solar Cycle 24 seemed to have peaked in 2007. In year before, Dr David Hathaway of NASA made the first general estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/10may_longrange/
Based on the slowing of the Suns Great Conveyor Belt, he predicted that
The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries. He is very likely to have got the year wrong in that Solar Cycle 25 is unlikely to start until 2025.
In this paper: http://www.probeinternational.org/Livingston-penn-2010.pdf,
Livingston and Penn provided the first hard estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude based on a physical model. That estimate is 7, which would make it the smallest solar cycle for over 300 years.
This is figure 2 from their paper:
Livingston and Penn have been tracking the decline in sunspot magnetic field, predicting that sunspots will disappear when the umbral magnetic field strength falls below 1,500 gauss, as per this figure from their 2010 paper:
Dr Svalgaard has updated of the progression of that decline on his research page at:
http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png
With data updated to year end 2011, the line of best fit on Dr Svalgaards figure of Umbral Magnetic Field now intersects the 1,500 guass sunspot cutoff in 2030:
Using the Livingston and Penn Solar Cycle 25 amplitude estimate, this is what the solar cycle record is projected to look like:
And, yes, that means the end of the Modern Warm Period.
===========================================================
Further reading:
NASA Long Range Solar Forecast Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries.
Gulf Coast real estate will be heading upward...
The next ice age cometh, sooner than expected!
***********************************EXCERPT*****************************************
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
From the weather is not climate department, the sea ice is in early and thick in Alaska. It makes me shiver just to look at the picture. They had to use an icebreaker to get fuel to Nome.
Figure 1. The Bering Sea region in Alaska. Anchorage is at the upper right. The Aleutian peninsula and chain runs down to the lower left. Ice covers all of Bristol Bay, and extends well out from the shore to the west. Photo Source
I fished commercially up there, in the Bering Sea. Ive lived in a container in the Peter Pan Cannery boatyard in Dillingham, and gill netted for the noble salmon in Bristol Bay, drunk too much and worked it off laughing in a blazing hot steam bath with some Yupik guys trying to roast me out the door by cranking up the heat. Ive made great money in driving sleet arguing with the herring regarding the eventual fate of their roe in Togiak, and seen the walrus hauled ashore in their thousands on Round Island. Those fisheries kill a man or two a year, plus the usual crushed hands and feet and the like. But I havent fished the January Bering Sea crab fishery, the one made famous as The Deadliest Catch. Figure 1 shows why I dont do that.
The Bering Sea ice this year is in early, and its thick. Not only that, its moving south fast. The crab fleet has some $8 million dollars of gear in the water, and the ice is moving south at twenty miles an hour. Usually ice comes in later and thinner, and moves south at three miles an hour. Boats are tied up to the Dutch Harbor docks. At St. Paul Island, out of the photo to the left, the crab boats usually sell their loads to the processor boats. It is also totally iced in. Millions of dollars have already been sunk into moving the crab boats and the processor boats and the crab pots to Dutch. If this cold continues, the season will likely be a total bust.
My point in this post? Awe, mostly, at the damaging power of cold. As a seaman, cold holds many more terrors than heat. When enough ice builds up on a boats superstructure, it rolls over and men die. The sun cant do that. The Titanic wasnt sunk by a heat wave.
The thing about ice? You cant do a dang thing about it. You cant blow up a glacier, or an ice sheet like you see in the Bering Sea above. You cant melt it. The biggest, most powerful icebreaker cant break through more than a few feet of it. When the ice moves in, the game is over.
Now me, Im a tropical boy. My feeling is that well-behaved ice sits peacefully in my margarita glass, making those lovely cold drips run down the outside, and giving me a brain freeze when I hold the glass to my forehead.
But when ice jumps out of my glass and starts running all around painting the landscape white and solidifying the ocean and falling on my head and freezing my begonias, well, at that point the funs over. I call that water behaving badly.
And if you want to worry about a climate related occurrence, I certainly wouldnt worry about the dread Thermageddon, the long-foretold and ever-receding premature heat-death of civilization.
Id worry about water behaving badly
Best of the cold to my friends in Alaska, stay safe on the ocean, and my regards to all,
w.
Thanks for the ping. We will have to burn more fossil fuels to offset global cooling.
I love global warming ,,,, today in Baltimore temps climed near 60* . I would love to be able to sell my snowblower to some spotted owl , snail darter , polar bear , tree huggin wimp in Los Angeles .
“Will our temperatures in North America decline in Celsius or Fahrenheit?”
Kelvin. It’s absolute!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.