Posted on 06/02/2005 9:04:31 AM PDT by SunkenCiv
On 26 May, JPL's unique orbital calculation software determined that Comet Catalina was on what could possibly be a collision course with Earth, though the odds of such an impact were small: just 1 chance in 300,000 of a strike on June 11, 2085. Based on the 980-metre size estimate, that would produce a 6-gigaton impact - equivalent to 6 billion tonnes of TNT.
Astronomers expected the addition of further observations to the calculations to rule out any possibility of a collision, as happens with most newly-seen objects.
But that did not quite happen. The comet's predicted pathway actually drew even closer to making a perfect bull’s-eye with the Earth - its predicted path passes within 1000 kilometres of the where the centre of our 12,700-km-diameter planet will be around that time.
However, uncertainty in the exact timing of the comet’s pass through the line of Earth’s orbit dropped the odds of an impact to about 1 in 120 million. That is very low, but the observations so far cannot categorically rule a collision out.
(Excerpt) Read more at newscientistspace.com ...
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| Posted by My Favorite Headache On News/Activism 01/11/2005 7:22:02 PM PST · 42 replies · 2,349+ views Comet Machholz ^ Comet Machholz (Comet 2004 Q2) Page Comet Machholz is current overhead in the early evening. Comet hunter (and SJAA club member) Don Machholz discovered it last August. How he discovered the comet was described in his article in the SJAA Ephemeris. The comet is now nearly overhead at California latitudes. In a dark sky it should be visible as a non distinct patch of light. As of January 4, 2005 it was even visible within the San Jose city limits. Unfortunately the weather there has not been cooperating. The comet is easily visible in telescope finder or binoculars |
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| Posted by bayourod On News/Activism 01/12/2005 7:52:25 PM PST · 16 replies · 345+ views The Houstoin Chronicle via AP via NASA Deep Impact Web site ^ | Jan. 12, 2005 | NASA staff CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. ó A NASA spacecraft with a Hollywood name ó Deep Impact ó blasted off today on a mission to smash a hole in a comet and give scientists a glimpse of the frozen primordial ingredients of the solar system. With a launch window only one second long, Deep Impact rocketed away at the designated moment on a six-month, 268-million-mile journey to Comet Tempel 1. It will be a one-way trip that NASA hopes will reach a cataclysmic end on the Fourth of July. "We are on our way," an excited Michael A'Hearn of the University of Maryland,... |
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| Clearing skies make comet more visible |
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| Posted by BenLurkin On News/Activism 01/13/2005 11:20:23 AM PST · 12 replies · 528+ views Valley Press on Thursday, ^ | January 13, 2005. | DON HALEY Clearing skies over the high desert will finally give stargazers a chance to peer at Comet Machholz, the noticeably green comet that has been transiting constellations above the southeastern horizon for several months. The comet, a faint glowing "fuzzball" detectable with the unaided eye, is now arcing upward through the lower portion of the constellation Perseus and can easily be seen with binoculars. To find Comet Machholz, look toward the southeast after complete darkness, preferably in an area that is distant from street lights. Find the lowest recognizable constellation, Orion. It appears as a long box of four bright stars,... |
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| NASA comet-busting craft on course, instrument problem studied |
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| Posted by NormsRevenge On News/Activism 03/25/2005 7:27:52 PM PST · 9 replies · 299+ views Bakersfield Californian ^ | 3/25/05 | AP - Los Angeles PASADENA, Calif. (AP) - NASA's Deep Impact spacecraft is on course for a July 4 encounter with comet Tempel 1 but mission officials are trying to determine why a telescope that will function as its main science instrument has not reached proper focus, the space agency said Friday. Officials nonetheless expressed confidence that the mission will not be affected by the problem. Deep Impact carries an "impactor" that will be released to collide with the comet, possibly creating a stadium-size gouge while the spacecraft's instruments collect data on the material that is hurled off. The craft was launched on Jan.... |
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| Comet-hitting probe tweaks its course to target |
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| Posted by RightWhale On News/Activism 05/16/2005 8:35:53 AM PDT · 9 replies · 410+ views spaceflightnow.com ^ | 16 May 05 | NASA Comet-hitting probe tweaks its course to target NASA NEWS RELEASE Posted: May 15, 2005 Fifty-nine days before going head-to-head with comet Tempel 1, NASA's Deep Impact spacecraft successfully executed the second trajectory correction maneuver of the mission. The burn further refined the spacecraft's trajectory, or flight path, and also moved forward the expected time of the Independence Day comet encounter so impact would be visible by ground- and space-based observatories. The 95-second burn - the longest remaining firing of the spacecraft's motors prior to comet encounter -- was executed on May 4. It changed Deep Impact's speed by 18.2 kilometers... |
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I'll be so old by then that I'll be hoping it hits me.
Near the end of the article there's info about Comet Swift-Tuttle which may be of interest.
link to an older, similar topic:
Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
Yahoo/AP | 12/23/04 | JOHN ANTCZAK
Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1307719/posts
That is a ways out, eh? I'll be, hmm, about 127 years old. In about 80 years I plan to start a real-time thread here on FR, to discuss the news updates regarding the approach. See you then? ;')
127 years old and still on the voting roll (courtesy of the Democratic party!)
Sweet. Death by celestial snowcone.
But what impact will this have on me personnally? :-)
980 meters mean it will be a regional disaster, not a global one. Not big enough. It would kick up enough dust globally to rival some pretty massive volcanic explosions, but nothing serious in that effect.
There's still the matter of asteroid 2004 MN4 to deal with in 2036.
We ought to get some hardware into space soon so we can deal with this and whatever others come along without a great deal of [fiscal] excitement.
Not sure. I'm still imagining enough strawberry syrup for a snowcone that size.
Beg to differ. Comets are moving faster (in general) than asteroids, and have much more energy. Also,
980 meter = 0.6089438 mile
This would indeed cause a major and worldwide disaster; the Chicxulub impactor was in the area of 10 km (10 kilometer = 6.2137119 mile), something more than 1000 times the size (assuming more or less spherical, 10 ^ 3) of this comet (as far as is known; exact dimensions of this "new" comet are not yet known, but it doesn't seem very likely to increase tenfold, either), moving 10 to 20 km a second. The eleven largest nuclei of SL-9 (the shattered comet which struck Jupiter in 1994) were each between 2 and 4 km in diameter.
http://www.onlineconversion.com/length_common.htm
A permanent human presence on the Moon seems like an excellent idea in this connection. :')
What is needed for hardware would be several large ion motors with fuel placed in solar orbit ready to be moved to and attached to any incoming body of import so as to nudge its orbit out of the way at an early moment and without the necessity of calling a special session of Congress or the General Assembly or causing stress to the industrious farming people of earth and their animals.
Wholeheartedly agree with your choice of engine. But the way to bump the interloper is to attach the engine to smaller (but still substantial) body, and use that to whack it. Of course, that capability will be frowned upon, from the political standpoint, because it can easily be weaponized. Using smallish asteroids to destroy cities is easier and cheaper than building a nuclear program, and the result can look like an act of nature.
Nudging the body is only the first part of the plan. The electric motors will continue to fire until the body is captured into a convenient orbit such as the L-4 or the L-5 libration point. Depending on composition, it might have some mineral value or simply mass value.
Crap, June 11, 2085 I've got tickets to a Rangers game that day, just my luck.
Shuttle-derived Launch Vehicle (SDLV), 80-100 metric tons to LEO. NASA is expected to formally reveal its SDLV plans in the first week of July. AKA BDB.
"Shuttle-derived Launch Vehicle (SDLV), 80-100 metric tons to LEO."
About time! This was first suggested 20 years ago.
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