Could Dems Flip North Carolina In 2024?

“This year? No. But 2028 or 2032 definitely a good possibility.”

I have to agree. The GOP has (in the past) been able to rely on a solid wall of electoral votes from the South.

Virginia is gone.

Florida is iffy (although DeSantis has done good work to eliminate cheating there)

Georgia is gone unless the suburbs suddenly grow a spine again and resume voting GOP.

Texas is still good but the long-term demographics don’t look good unless the GOP can make a sizable dent in the hispanic vote.

Republicans must stop ceding entire demographics to Democrats. Their thinking is “Oh there are too many college educated and urban voters now..we should look to expand among rural voters”. NO. Go to the “college educated” and “urban” voters and make your case. Stop with this defeatism. This is what Vivek Ramaswamy was advocating during his own presidential campaign. Changing minds is hard work and the GOP so far has just chosen to avoid it.

Well said. Politics is downstream of culture and economics. A party which rejects and is rejected by younger well-educated people has no future.

The whole point of the article is that it is a different "they."

The population of Democrat-leaning cities and counties in NC has exploded in absolute terms and (more importantly) relative terms to other cities and counties since 2020.

The assumption is that new arrivals will vote like the people who voted there in 2020. The question is whether that's a reasonable assumption. I am not sure it is.

A lot of the Democratic vote in the big NC metros is black, and the people moving in are not black. The white people who are moving in are often fleeing Democratic policies in the northeast and Pacific coast in a much more explicit way than they used to do so - I really doubt that they are net Democratic voters. The Hispanic and Asian-American population growth is very high in NC and those are a very Democratic-leaning demographic, at least when the candidates are / are represented to be "moderate."

I don't think that it's in Democrats' interest to be making NC seem tighter for Republicans than it is. They've got a very clear path to holding the Governorship and taking Republican legislative seats down below the current veto-proof majorities. Why incentivize Trump to fire up the base and spent a lot of time on GOTV? Almost every vote model you can point to would show that if Biden is close to winning NC he's going to be cruising to victory in Arizona and Georgia thus not need NC.

Virginia is mostly gone though Youngkin’s popularity might bring about a narrow 3 or 4 point victory. Otherwise it’s a lost cause.

I’m more bullish on Florida. I can see Trump getting a double digit win here 53-42 over Biden. No way Florida flips to Biden. We’re solid GOP for a good stretch.

Georgia will give Trump a 5 or 6 point victory this year. Like NC all bets are off in ‘28 and beyond.

I agree with you on Texas. Until 2036 we’re good. After that forget it

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