THIS IS STRANGE: Report Shows 2020 with Lowest Number of Recorded US Deaths Since 2009

Gateway Pundit ^ | 08/13/2020 | Jim Hoft

[CJ Wolf]

I’ve been there a few times since the kungflu hit and a few times before. I have to say things are different now in a good way. Much quicker service, there is minimal waiting, you are in and out and if you are scheduled to go it’s even better. Best wishes.

[SmokingJoe]

Used to be called Russia Today.
And I believe them a million times more than CNN. Any time any day.

[Pajamajan]

bttt

[CJ Wolf]

umkay, good you don’t believe in that CNN, you got that going for you. not so good you believe in Russia propaganda, truth, pravda as they used to call it. They add some truth to make it palatable, but really man?

[SmokingJoe]

And even more:

Coronavirus Lockdown Causing Up to 75,000 Suicides, Drug Overdoses, More

https://thewashingtonsentinel.com/coronavirus-lockdown-causing-up-to-75000-suicides-drug-overdoses-more/

[SmokingJoe]

At its worst, even Pravda didn’t even come close to the propaganda, disinformation , dirty tricks and lies that are spewed out 24/7 by CNN, MSNBC The Washington Post, New York Times etc.
And I am old enough to remember Pravda at its worst.

[CJ Wolf]

““Rampant unemployment, isolation and an uncertain future — could lead to 75,000 deaths from drug or alcohol abuse and suicide,” the study finds.

The study says that these deaths are called “deaths of despair.””

key scary words, “Could” “Study” and “Deaths of Despair” “more”

You can’t be serious. lol got me. Got even more?

[CJ Wolf]

“At its worst, even Pravda didn’t even come close to the propaganda, disinformation , dirty tricks and lies that are spewed out 24/7 by CNN, MSNBC The Washington Post, New York Times etc.
And I am old enough to remember Pravda at its worst”

I remember too, and don’t dispute what you say about the CNN/MSM/etc, but to turn to what you know is a bit of truth sprinkled with a Russian flavor and spread it is the same as Pravda at it’s worse. Why turn to them now?

[SmokingJoe]

I have given you three solid examples of a massive rise in suicides from covid 19 lockdowns, with exactly zero replies citing any sources or scientific data from you.
So far, all you have is is to complain about RT without actually challenging the solid sources of their report of actually challenging the reports they site with any facts.
Every single one of those sources is better than anything we’ve gotten from Fauci so far.

[SmokingJoe]

If you have any data to challenge the reports cited in the RT article, let us see it.
All the reports in the article were from scientific studies in Australia and the US and they point out the mortal danger of suicides from long running lockdowns. So we know that they are untainted by Fauci Birx and the fake news media.
I haven’t seen even one study that suggest lockdowns don’t lead to increased suicides, drug use, domestic abuse etc.
If you have any such study let’s see it.

[Vendome]

Doctors are killing less people because they refuse going to the hospital and chancing dying from CCP-19

[Steve Van Doorn]

said, "Colleen Huber has removed her report from the website because someone directed her to a CDC site she had not seen which shows total deaths about 100,000 higher through August 8th"

Thank you. Though wouldn't that still make the death rate the lowest in 20 years? One hundred thousand more would be 1,727,731. 2019 was 2,855,000 in 2019 through August 8th.

[PIF]

All the aliens left?

[mewzilla]

Much fewer deaths because people are staying out of hospitals.

That's a very good point since medical mistakes kill approximately four times more Americans annually than WuFlu has to date.

[Svartalfiar]

This is an interesting area of research. There is some seasonality to death rates, partially due to influenza, and partially due to changes in accident rates by season and other similar causes.

Seasonality shouldn't affect this. It's a year vs year vs year comparison, so that same seasonality would be present in each data point being compared.

The only big issues might be if there's a significant number of deaths yet to be reported (unlikely), or they compared total numbers for the full year, when this year isn't completed yet (possible). But, the death chart shows a pretty big drop the past month or two, so I would be inclined to believe the story is accurate.

[freeandfreezing]

Seasonality shouldn't affect this. It's a year vs year vs year comparison, so that same seasonality would be present in each data point being compared. That would be true if the comparison was for full years. But once the operation of dividing by months and comparing the monthly averages was done that is not necessarily correct if there is seasonality.

If more people ordinarily die in the fall and early winter then the per month rate found by dividing the last year total by 12 overstates the death rate for the first 8 months of the year. If the death rate is higher in the spring and summer then the reverse is true.

[Svartalfiar]

That would be true if the comparison was for full years. But once the operation of dividing by months and comparing the monthly averages was done that is not necessarily correct if there is seasonality.

Yup, you're right. I just skimmed through the original article, but looking closer now it does look like they just averaged all the months then compared those numbers. So seasonality is NOT taken into account.

To do some offhand numbers on this real quick. Monthly death averages are pretty hard to find, at least for several years in a single chart/place. This old reddit post has a decent chart (huge, multi-image in one or I'd link it) but only goes through end of April, and this CDC page is average dailies for just 2017. Both graphs look similar.


The original post data went through week 32, or mid-August. From several other articles, the deadliest months are Jan, Feb, and Dec. But, Sept/Oct/Nov, the remaining other months for this year, are all below the yearly average. Squinty-eyed estimating from the CDC graph, it looks like the seasonal high in December is offset by the seasonal lows in the other three remaining months, to where the rest of the year is about average in total. So, to rough out the article's data, it looks like they could assume the rest of the year is average, to equitably compare this year to previous years. So seasonality should NOT affect the data much, and their comparison data should be pretty close to final results, unless deaths suddenly go crazy high or crazy low the rest of 2020.

--------------

Or, they could have simply looked at every year up until week 32, then compared those death counts. No seasonality or any other issues there. Straight 1:1 comparison... No clue why they wouldn't have done that in the first place. You'd think looking at proper methodology would be pretty early on the process for Dr Huber... Not after publication..

[freeandfreezing]

Thanks for doing and publishing what the original authors could have done!

I agree that the seasonality does not seem like it will have a great effect based on the data you presented.

[SFConservative]

There is a 3-6 week lag in the reporting on this data. The 32 weeks would roughly have only 28-29 weeks worth of deaths. This is vey obvious when you look at the raw CDC data spreadsheet that they put out every week. The real percentage looks more like 0.0167%.

[Svartalfiar]

Thanks for doing and publishing what the original authors could have done!
I agree that the seasonality does not seem like it will have a great effect based on the data you presented.

Sure thing! I mean my data is about 5-10 minutes of Duckduckgo, so I'm sure they could have / should have gone much deeper into actual data, and gotten more exact results. If they'd had a better process / comparison standard.