Posted on 11/05/2018 7:20:38 AM PST by jmaroneps37
In June a writer from Chicago went to the reopening of a steel mill in southern Illinois and came away saying Donald Trump would win in 2020 because the Democrats have no one like him.
At that time I said the Republicans would not lose the House in 2018 and I starting saying they would take 11 Democrat Senate seats precisely because the Democrats have no one like him to campaign for them like Donald Trump; and they don't.
Now every race is about Donald Trump’s great performance as our president, our leader and main cheerleader for America.
As per today’s Rasmussen poll 51% of America agrees with this description of Trump; and in a stunning reversal of the lying polls up to this point, Rasmussen found by 1 point Americans prefer a Republican House of Representatives.
It is important to note that unless Democrats hold at least a 5 point generic survey lead they will lose and the lower “lead” they have the more likely they will lose.
This one point lead for Republicans is a hugely significant number.
It is a serve blow to the Polosi crime family.
Based on all available data I will say Republicans not only hold the House, but end up with a plus of 8 to 10 take aways from the Democrats.
This number could go up to 14 which will be explained in a second piece.
The following data describing early voting numbers was posted last night.
This data covers 19 million early voters.
First the ethnic breakdown of early voters:
African Americans are voting at a rate that puts them on track to be just 10.69% of the electorate.
This is 1.31% points below this group’s percentage of their 2016 vote.
Note:In 2016, because African Americans had been so closely tied to the Democrats for so long, when they began to break away they expressed their new sentiment by staying home instead of voting Republican which was unthinkable and did not outweigh their disapproval of Democrats.
In Michigan where Donald Trump won by 10,700 votes, 50,000 almost totally African Americans living in the Detroit tri-county area stayed home.
“Staying home” became the protest weapon of choice for African Americans in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina all of which were won by Trump and made possible by African Americans’ refusal to vote.
Given the rise of African American support for Trump which has hit 40%, it is also very possible that a segment of this voting bloc will go to the polls and vote Republican at a greater rate than the reported 8% they did in 2016.
Any drop of the percentage of the African American vote will prove to be very damaging for the Democrats.
The fact that 21% of African Americans are supporting the White Republican incumbent governor of Maryland, as he crushes the former head of the NAACP, is ominous for Democrats wherever there is a substantial African American population.
In 2016 African Americans voted 89/8 for Democrats.
Hispanics are voting at a rate that puts them on track to be just 9.74% of the electorate.
This is 2.64 points below this group’s percentage of their vote in 2016.
This is another gut punch to Democrats especially in places like North East New Jersey where four heavily Hispanic and/or African American counties are “worrying” Democrat Bob Menendez because the indications are that there is little enthusiasm to vote.
It is established fact that Hispanics have crossed over in voting, as in the Texas special election where a Republican who lost in a race for the same seat in 2016 by 15 points, won by 6 in a 68% Hispanic district held by Democrats for the last 139 years.
The fact that a Probolsky poll in California found Hispanics in 11 battleground congressional districts generically favor Republicans by 49/44 also says Hispanics are ready to cross.
The percentage of support for Trump among Hispanics is hard to dig out because there seems to have been no surveys of Hispanics since August when it hit 45%; but the 51% of Hispanics who support Trump’s deployment of troops to the southern border suggests that 51% is the real current support number.
In 2016 Hispanics voted 66/28 for Democrats.
Whites are voting at a rate that puts them on track to be 67.10% of the electorate.
This is 3.9 points below this group’s percentage of their vote in 2016.
In view of Rasmussen’s one point Generic survey lead for Republicans and the fact that Real Clear Politics now sees no Democrat takeover of the House based on even the fake polls it uses, this strongly suggests that this drop off is the product of a loss of enthusiasm to vote among White Democrats.
In 2016 Whites voted for Republicans 67/37.
The voting by age group:
These are the percentages of early voters broken down by age.
18 – 29 - 6.44%
In 2016 this group was 9.5% of the electorate and voted 54/38 for Democrats.
30-39 - 8.92%
In 2016 this group was 17% of the electorate and voted 51/39 for Democrats.
40 – 49 -12.63%
In 2016 this group was 19% and voted 46/49 for Republicans.
50 – 69 42.32%
In 2016 this group was 46% and voted 52/45 for Republicans.
Again, given the crush of economic good news and Trump's high personal approval seemingly putting victory out of their reach this drop off may be the product of a drop in enthusiasm among older Democrats.
Here are the raw numbers of early voting by Republicans.
In Florida the Republicans have a turnout edge of 1.8% which is a 5.8% over performance of the Republican to Democrat registration numbers which are 40/36.
As of today the Democrat raw vote turnout number in Florida is 70,148 LESS than it was at this point in 2016 (Trump still won by 113,000 votes);and the Panhandle votes are still coming in.
Other state raw early vote numbers are as follows:
Republicans are up in every one of the following states.
178,464 votes in Arizona.
105,352 votes in Indiana.
2,282 votes in Missouri.
48,581 votes in Montana.
46,742 votes in North Dakota.
85,713 votes in Ohio.
8,023 votes in Pennsylvania.
464.358 votes in Tennessee.
767,458 votes in Texas.
36,089 votes in Wisconsin.
26,579 votes in West Virginia.
Note; from another source which is almost a week old, Michigan Republicans were up 154,066 early voters.
Any way you look at it, the Republicans are in a better position than the Democrats.
I think we are +4 in both houses...
Still predicting about 10 or 11 seats in the Senate?
Praying for a 60R senate and an R controlled house.
I know they have been clearing out thousands of names from the voter registration, despite the Democrats attempts to fight that.
Agreed. Been talking to God about this for weeks.
I enjoyed your “vanity” (it’s so much better than that freeper term!) so much I posted it all over my other social media. Great work! If you are right, you might be the new conservative Nate Silver!
We had a few delusional Freepers posting yesterday, didn’t we?
It’s astounding how delusional some Freepers were...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.