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fake news: Donald Trump and the Non-Existent Two Million Criminal Immigrants
Lawfare ^ | November 23, 2016 | Stephanie Leutert

Posted on 11/23/2016 4:14:45 AM PST by spintreebob

he two million number materialized well before Trump repeated it in his recent 60 Minutes interview. He used the figure in a number of his rallies, including his infamous, Phoenix speech, in which he outlined his immigration plan, and it appears in his plan for the first 100 days in office. The Trump team even shared its official source for the two million criminal immigrant figure with the Washington Post: a 2013 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget report to Congress.

So, go ahead, open the report, and scroll to page 1092. You too will find the following line: “ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] estimates that 1.9 million removable criminal aliens are in the United States today.” Since its publication, the Migration Policy Institute, FiveThirtyEight, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and others have all used this number, citing the report.

But as they say, the devil is in the details, or in this case, the footnote.

Here’s the breakdown of ICE’s footnoted explanation of its methodology for reaching the figure of 1.9 million . . . .

(Excerpt) Read more at lawfareblog.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: criminalillegals; deportation; fakenews; illegals
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In the immigration debate, all sides have pushed mis-information. But this article takes the debate to a new level of lies and twisting of facts.

First, the number of legal aliens is far larger than what they show. The number of criminal aliens (both legals and illegals) is far larger than what they show because they only show a snapshot of incarcerated at a point in time. They do not count those released from incarcerations. They do not count those guilty but not incarcerated. They do not count those plea bargained for la lesser offense where there is no doubt they did the deed.

They don't define what is criminal. Aggravated assault, battery are misdemeanors rarely incarcerated. But they are crimes. I call DUI/DWI and leaving the scene of an accident crimes. Some do not. I do not call a speeding ticket a crime. Some do.

The big question in defining crime is to what extent do breaking the laws around SS Numbers and Green Cards become a crime. Is using the SS Number of your own anchor baby a crime in the same way that using the SS Number of a stranger a crime? Or in the same way that using the SS Number not held by anyone else a crime?

1 posted on 11/23/2016 4:14:45 AM PST by spintreebob
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To: spintreebob
To my mind, every illegal alien is a criminal. They broke our laws by coming into our country illegally. This seems to be a very difficult concept for many to understand.
2 posted on 11/23/2016 4:29:51 AM PST by Blennos ( As)
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To: spintreebob

Fake writer. A real one knows how to use a comma in a sentence.


3 posted on 11/23/2016 4:33:57 AM PST by hopespringseternal
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To: spintreebob
Try this. The number of people here without approval is most probably at least 11 million, determined by the honest prior Bush administration figures. Possibly half of those have the various fake approvals, amnesties, ID cards, etc., from Obamaism that makes then look legal. But they are still here illegally.

The way to solve this is if they catch the eye of enforcement personnel and cannot reasonably show they are here legally, they are to be presumed to be not here legally and they are also not legally a citizen. In that case deportion is the correct course of action, imposd with one right of appeal then out they go, deported with spouse and family.

Sorry to say even the Trump administration has an easier job cleaning up Obama's crime by focusing on the smaller numbers. It's simple, saying it is fewer to deport, means less work to correct the situation.

My recommendation, if you cannot prove you are a citizen you are expelled. You can then reapply to legally enter.

4 posted on 11/23/2016 4:43:17 AM PST by Rapscallion (The opposite of charity is justice.)
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To: Blennos

Entering the US without playing mother-may-I with DHS is a minor paperwork offense equivalent to a parking ticket.

HR4437 intended to change it to a felony. HR4437 lost bigly in Congress. Protests and counter-protests of HR4437 moved illegal immigration to a top 20 issue 13 years ago. Before HR4437 is was not in the top 50 issues in FR. It was not in the top 50 issues in any forum.


5 posted on 11/23/2016 4:43:55 AM PST by spintreebob
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To: Rapscallion
The number of people here without approval is most probably at least 11 million

Sorry. More like 25-30 million.

The 11 million number was from 15 years ago, pushed by the Pew Research Center, a hispanic agitation outfit. It was low then.

6 posted on 11/23/2016 4:50:49 AM PST by Regulator
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To: spintreebob
Entering the US without playing mother-may-I with DHS is a minor paperwork offense equivalent to a parking ticket.

I didn't realize that this was taken so lightly here in the US. The sentiment of the people has changed though in the past 13 years. Now I would imagine it's a top 5 issue. I hope that illegal border-crossing is further criminalized during Trump's term.

7 posted on 11/23/2016 4:52:56 AM PST by Blennos ( As)
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To: Tennessee Nana; AuntB; TADSLOS; GOPJ; Jane Long; RitaOK; jsanders2001; HarleyLady27; ...
Donald has got to trash all of Obama's immigration atrocities like DACA and DAPA...and root out the Democrats' plans to increase their votes w/ immigration. The Dumbocrats voting base is shrinking so they are flooding the states w/ foreigners.

And get this....Obama's vainglorious dream of a permanent Democrat majority didn't work out thanks to American voters. Too bad.

2016 map exhibits the Republican Party expansion.
2014 map is Congressional results when the Democrats got slaughtered.

2016 map was better than we could have ever imagined.

=================================================

2016 TRUMP MAP (hat tip NYT)

2016 HILLARY MAP (hat tip NYT)


8 posted on 11/23/2016 5:06:24 AM PST by Liz ( Experience is a dear teacher, but fools will learn at no other. Benjamin Franklin)
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To: spintreebob

Illegals make up 37% of the federal prison population. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/07/illegal-immigrants-accounted-for-nearly-37-percent-of-federal-sentences-in-fy-2014/

Prison Population http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=11

This does not count those on Probation or Parole.

I’d venture a guess it is closer to 4 Mil than 2.

Prison over crowding led to ‘good behavior’ time being invented by liberal do gooders. Along with all the goodies a prisoner now has including conjugal visits in states like Cali. Baby Nurseries in most states for female prisoners. Even RED TN has 2 women’s prisons, and 1 has a full blown nursery where they can ‘bond’ with the baby or siblings for 2 yrs after giving birth in prison, and we pick up the full tab for formula, diapers, and health care. If they’ve been good inmates, no such thing as a good inmate. Recidivism nationally is nearly 70%.

Those 11 month 29 day facilities are noting but 3 month revolving doors with Recidivism topping 85%. 30=50 or more lower felonies each. Memphis is an all male population for the Penal Farm. Which used to grow all it’s own food, now it’s all bought. You can’t work them, it violates their rights. BS.


9 posted on 11/23/2016 5:10:04 AM PST by GailA (Ret. SCPO wife: Merry CHRISTmas, Happy Birthday JESUS CHRIST, suck it up buttercup you lost)
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To: spintreebob

Here is a fact. Almost 40% of federal criminals are Illegal Aliens. Send them packing home, after their sentences are done of course.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/07/illegal-immigrants-accounted-for-nearly-37-percent-of-federal-sentences-in-fy-2014/


10 posted on 11/23/2016 5:16:13 AM PST by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (The GOP will see the light, because Trump will make them feel the heat.)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

I visited a family member who was being held in the county jail. About 70% of visitors that day were Hispanics, most of them speaking in Spanish as they waited.

When the prisoners filed in to take their places behind glass in the visiting area, a clear majority were Hispanic.

According to the census numbers, 25% of this county’s population are Hispanic. I’d say they’re a little over-represented among the criminal crowd.


11 posted on 11/23/2016 5:29:39 AM PST by Max in Utah (A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within.)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free
Scholars have repeatedly noted that native born Americans commit at least two times as many crimes as do immigrants.

I believe Ann Coulter saw through this dodge: combining illegal and legal immigrants before calculating the crime rate is either intentionally deceptive or just plain stupid. Is this writer suggesting legal and illegal immigrants commit crimes at the same rate? She selectively presented data to support her preconceived notion.

12 posted on 11/23/2016 5:34:00 AM PST by FirstFlaBn
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To: Rapscallion

“Now let me explain what happened when I tried to replicate ICE’s process to reach 1.9 million criminal migrants. Spoiler alert: It’s a little different. The final number comes out to just around 1.1 million. That’s a lot less than 1.9 million. “

That’s a difference of .8 million, or 800,000 people. Now the writer says that’s an insignificant number but at the same time leads the reader to believe it’s a big difference.

Here’s a short list of cities close to that size. You be the judge if that number is large or small:

Jacksonville, Fl, San Francisco, Ca, Indianapolis, IN, Columbus, Ohio, Fort Worth, TX, or Charlotte NC.. (List according to the 2015 census)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

If the writer is trying to prove a point, this is not the way. If you’re going to indicate that something of this size is insignificant, these are the wrong numbers to use. If the writer is so proud of the 1,000,000 that Obama expelled, why isn’t the number only 100,000 left.
Furthermore, saying they can deport 1.9 million is indicating the number they can catch and process. Not the number that is here. There are words between the lines with this writer. Typical liberal smoke and mirrors.

red


13 posted on 11/23/2016 5:34:29 AM PST by Redwood71
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To: spintreebob

Speaking of fake news, this morning on the Today Show, Savannah Guthrie reported on the annual Presidential Turkey Pardoning. She stated, and I kind you not, that this is a new tradition that was started by President Obama at the request of his daughters! I about lost my mind 😡


14 posted on 11/23/2016 5:37:10 AM PST by liberalh8ter (The only difference between flash mob 'urban yutes' and U.S. politicians is the hoodies.)
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To: liberalh8ter

must we pollute the site with those emoticons?


15 posted on 11/23/2016 5:39:38 AM PST by bert ((K.E.; N.P.; GOPc;WASP .... Does America still have lots of safe closet? No)
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To: bert
Not something I normally do but it reflected my feelings....sorry if it offended you.
16 posted on 11/23/2016 5:43:54 AM PST by liberalh8ter (The only difference between flash mob 'urban yutes' and U.S. politicians is the hoodies.)
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To: Max in Utah

Most definitely.


17 posted on 11/23/2016 5:45:32 AM PST by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (The GOP will see the light, because Trump will make them feel the heat.)
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To: Rapscallion

May have most of that number here in CA, the number is more like 30-40 million.


18 posted on 11/23/2016 5:54:05 AM PST by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: spintreebob

About ten years ago, the Pew Foundation did a detailed study and estimated the number of illegals at that time as between 48 million and 65 million. I have not been able to find any evidence of that study...probably because the politicians had it scrubbed from the face of the earth. But I do know that when our son entered 3rd grade in 1993 in Big Bear Lake, CA, there were very few hispanics in his school. When we left Big Bear 2 years ago, the school is well over 80% hispanic. A total invasion.


19 posted on 11/23/2016 5:58:51 AM PST by Stayfree (GO TRUMP...CRUSH THE LEFT...LOCK HER UP...DRAIN THE SWAMP...ALL OF THEM!)
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To: Blennos

“To my mind, every illegal alien is a criminal.”

How can anyone argue with that? (Yet they do.)

This is an era when the US is beset by Muslim terrorism. I don’t know if there was ever a time when we should have tolerated illegal immigration. In this era, we should not tolerate illegal immigration.

Democrats keep harping on the popular vote. How much of that comes from illegal immigrants? It is quite possible that illegal immigrants voting illegally pushed Hillary over the top in the popular vote. It is not OK for foreigners to decide our elections (Federal, state or local), but it is possible that they have decided some elections.

Should we be surprised that illegal immigrants commit crimes in the US? Mark Steyn once wrote that America makes legal immigration hard, illegal immigration easy. This process seems to select law-breakers.


20 posted on 11/23/2016 5:59:58 AM PST by ChessExpert (It's not compassion when you use government to give other people's money away.)
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