New Hampshire Consequences and The GOPe Road Map Moving Forward

The Conservative Treehouse ^ | 2-10-2016 | sundance

[smoothsailing]

February 10, 2016

New Hampshire Consequences and The GOPe Road Map Moving Forward

by sundance

Last night was a Donald Trump win, period. A YUGE win. For context: Donald Trump beat second place, John Kasich, by more votes (currently 51,000) than Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton (currently 50,000).

A resounding victory for the vulgarian rebel alliance. Today, rejoice, dance well, be of good cheer and enjoy.

However, come sunrise we meet at the old mill, and ride south.

What does last night mean for the GOPe road map? That’s where it gets interesting.

Forget John Kasich; he is irrelevant as an individual candidate. Kasich has no organization, no structural pathway, no ballot access and is not a national candidate. However, his future endorsement of the GOPe candidate (Rubio or Bush) does bring with it his NH delegates…. but that is all.

The biggest loser is also one of our biggest loses, Governor Chris Christie. By coming in sixth, Christie has failed to make the cut for the upcoming CBS debate.

Debate Qualifications: Top three finish in Iowa, or Top five finish in New Hampshire, or top five polling nationally or in South Carolina. (link)

In addition to the debate issues and a financial hurdle, the sixth place finish essentially eliminates any path for Chris Christie. [Team Marco Rubio collectively breathe a sigh of relief.] However, with Christie gone – Jeb Bush also loses a key strategic partner for his own electoral pathway forward.

On the heels of a robotic debate performance, and with a poor fifth place New Hampshire finish, South Carolina just shifted into the MUST WIN column for Marco Rubio.

Rubio’s national strategy is dependent on building upon itself. We can expect some fireworks between camp Bush Super-PAC and camp Rubio Super-PAC over the next ten days as Rubiobot tries to ensure he regains his footing.

The CBS South Carolina debate is structurally set up to be as beneficial for Marco Rubio as the ABC New Hampshire debate was for Jeb Bush. New Hampshire was old GOPe money (Bush), South Carolina is new GOPe money (Rubio).

There’s a reason why Dana Perino lives amid her peers in South Carolina.

The FNB North Charleston GOP debate was filled with a Pro-Rubio audience, expect the same thing again with the CBS version. Remember, Paul Ryan and DC leadership approved the text of South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley’s State of the Union response speech against Donald Trump. Nikki Haley was/is lined up to be a top-tier Rubio or Bush VP pick (again, go back to the original road map).

Almost all of the DC GOPe players who are part of the South Carolina coalition will be aligned with Marco Rubio. Examples Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy et al. Lindsey Graham already endorsing Jeb Bush means all of the GOPe eggs are in the GOPe camp candidates. There will be a stacked audience in opposition to the vulgarian Trump.

Those who qualified for the debate include: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and possibly/tentatively Ben Carson (depending on Carson’s polling). No more than six candidates will be in that debate – and it could possibly be five.

With Jeb’s fourth place finish in New Hampshire, ahead of Rubio, he has reasserted himself as the GOPe primary frontrunner.

If Jeb can finish stronger than Rubio in South Carolina Jeb will have the momentum he needs to begin re-establishing his argument. But that’s going to be a challenge.

To achieve his objectives, and to settle the nerves of the donor class, we can expect Jeb to attack Donald Trump in an effort to project his strength. Jeb’s only real opportunity to do this is during the debate.

The victor of the Bush -v- Rubio contest will be determined by who can project themselves (to the donor class) as the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. Again, old money and old party teams preferring Bush, new money and modern GOPe types preferring Rubio.

The curious questioning on why Carly Fiorina continues in the race will probably intensify. But Carly’s later endorsement is not really a question – it will be either Jeb or Rubio.

South Carolina is going to be a real bloodbath ! There’s an increasing sense of desperation – and to make matters worse, Bernie Sanders is looming large over Hillary Clinton.

Remember, meet at the old mill – we ride at sunrise. !!

[Robert DeLong]

Actually, we just prefer the one actually qualified per the Constitution. The “natural born” citizen, instead of the naturalized citizen. That would be Trump, not Bush with regards to the NBC, whereas Cruz is the naturalized who fails qualification set forty in the Constitution.

[Yashcheritsiy]

EXACTLY!

I’m glad to see you’re with me on this!

[georgiarat]

My continued fear is that we wind up with a single GOPe candidate against a splint Trump and Cruz electorate. When it gets to winner take all states Teump could get 33%, Cruz 33% and the GOPe candidate 34% and the GOPe candidate takes home all the delegates. The quicker it gets down to Teump or Cruz the better but I do not see that happening before March 15 the date of the Texas primary. Ohio and Florida could both wind up in the delegate counts of the GOPe candidate and theoretically so could Texas. That would be a disaster.

[Dr. Sivana]

Very quickly this will become Bush vs. Trump.

No. It won't.

John Ellis Bush has a VERY low ceiling. The Establishment has power and connections, but it is largely in perception, like the Wizard of Oz.

John Ellis Bush cannot finish top 2 in SC. He won't finish top 3 ANYWHERE on SEC Tuesday (March 1). He won't finish top 3 in his home state of Florida.

No delegates, no leverage at the convention.

Cruz' people cannot be peeled off of at all. Trump's people CERTAINLY won't be peeled to John Ellis Bush. Any killer scandal on either Cruz or Trump would have been brought up by now, and would not be to John Ellis Bush's benefit.

[campaignPete R-CT]

CBS news setting the rules for SC primary.

comical that RNC takes no heat for allowing it. WTF?

[John 3_19-21]

There will be a stacked audience in opposition to the vulgarian Trump.

I heard that there were 25,000 request for tickets to Saturdays debate.

However, zero public tickets could be had because all tickets went
to big donors and party officials

Looks like an ambush.

[Dr. Sivana]

My continued fear is that we wind up with a single GOPe candidate against a splint Trump and Cruz electorate.

The good news is that they cannot agree on an Establishment candidate (John Ellis Bush, Rubio, Kasich). The other good news is that can't agree on an outsider to take out (Cruz, Trump).

RCP has Trump 36/Cruz 19/John Ellis Bush 10. That's not good for any delegates. No delegates, no leverage at convention. We also don't have the crazy Superdelegate setup the Dems have.

[taxcontrol]

I should point out that the reason Iowa is proportional and NH winner take all is to split up conservative Iowa and weigh heavily in favor of liberal (GOPe) NH. Thus the liberal wing of the GOP has greater influence during the early primaries ... by design.

[samtheman]

Trump should mention this in his opening remarks, just like he mentioned it in the last debate when he got boo-d for shooshing mamas boy.

He should just say, at the beginning of every debate, words to these effect:

The public has been locked out of the audience, which is hand-picked to support the designated Donor Class candidate. Can you guess who that is?

[j.argese]

Trump is NBC.

[smoothsailing]

Ted Cruz(PBUH) be dah man!

[taxcontrol]

Sorry, you are confused on NBC because you are not paying attention to Article I Section 8 of the Constitution.

Congress is specifically enumerated with the power over all rules of naturalization. That includes who does and who does not need to be naturalized. A person who is a citizen at birth, who does not need to be naturalized, is naturally born a citizen and qualifies for NBC status.

Who is a citizen at birth is expressed in Title 8 section 1401. That includes all who are born on US soil (jus soli) per the 14th Amendment and is covered by sub section A. It also includes those born to a US citizen while abroad if they meet certain requirements and is covered by sub section G. This is the section that qualifies Sen Cruz.

[smoothsailing]

Looks like an ambush.

That's the plan.

Trump needs to expose them and make a mockery out of them before and during the debate.

[John 3_19-21]

Agreed.

This GOPe strategy is to effect LIV voters and the ever
popular undecided, brain dead focus group fodder.

[Mears]

bfl

[Robert DeLong]

Sorry but you are wrong, if we take your interpretation then "anchor" babies are NBC who become eligible to become President once they obtain the age of 35. That goes directly against what the Framer's intended as "natural born" citizens.

You're are correct with regards to Congress having the enumerated powers with regards to the naturalization process. Which is quite different from being regarded as a "natural born" citizen. Naturalization can take place either by an immigrant coming here and going through a process to obtain citizenship, but it also can be bestowed upon persons at birth. A "natural born" citizen needs no confirmation that their allegiance is limited to the United States and the United Sates alone. That would be a person born within the territorial confines of the United States to citizen parents (plural).

In addition to the Constitutional requirements stating only a "natural born" citizen who has obtained the age of 35 is qualified to become President of the United States, the following must also be taken into consideration when determining "natural born" citizenship.

The United States vs. Wong Kim Ark.: "A person born out of the jurisdiction of the United States can only become a citizen by being naturalized...."

U.S. Department of State Foreign Affairs Manual: "Automatic" acquisition of U.S. citizenship after birth, a form of naturalization by certain children born abroad to U.S. citizen parents or children adopted abroad by U.S. citizen parents.

Ted was born abroad but to only 1 citizen parent. However, even if both had been citizen parents, he would still be considered a naturalized citizen

[Yashcheritsiy]

Stealing that!

[georgiarat]

I agree. Even though Sanders won by over 20% difference in votes Hillary has more delegates out of the state. Look for the GOPe to do the same the next election cycle if they are in control.

[taxcontrol]

You're are correct with regards to Congress having the enumerated powers with regards to the naturalization process. Which is quite different from being regarded as a "natural born" citizen.

That is where we disagree.

[andy1954]

His gang of eight membership will play better in the general than you think.