Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The Elephant In The Room
MEMRI ^ | October 2, 2015 | Yigal Carmon

Posted on 10/02/2015 11:31:45 AM PDT by Dave346

On September 3, 2015, not two months after the July 14 announcement of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action at Vienna and its celebration at the White House and in Europe, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dropped a bombshell.

In a speech to the Iranian Assembly of Experts, he backtracked from the agreement, demanding a new concession: that the sanctions be "lifted," not merely "suspended."[1] If that term is not changed, said Khamenei, there is no agreement. If the West only "suspends" the sanctions, he added, Iran will merely "suspend" its obligations. Giving further credence to his threat, he announced that it is the Iranian Majlis that must discuss and approve the agreement (or not), because it represents the people – when it is well known that the majority of its members oppose it, and Iranian President Hassan Rohani made every effort to prevent such a discussion in the Majlis from taking place.

Adding insult to injury, Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Khamenei and head of Iran's Center for Strategic Research, said on September 19 that the negotiations, concluded and celebrated less than two months previously on July 14, are actually "not over yet."[2]

Khamenei's demand to replace "suspension" with "lifting" is not just semantic. It is a fundamental change, because the snapback of sanctions – the major security mechanism for the entire agreement – cannot take place with "lifting," but only with "suspension."

Ever since Khamenei dropped this bombshell, the Western media has maintained total silence, as if this were a trivial matter not worthy of mention, let alone analysis.

One might understand this reaction on the part of those who support the deal. Perhaps they are shocked, at a loss, and therefore hope that if they pretend they don't see it, it doesn't exist. Indeed, this is the futile policy regularly adopted by ostriches.

However, one cannot but be astounded by the silence on the part of the opponents of the deal, including – oddly enough – Israel and the U.S. Republicans. One would expect these opponents to pounce on Khamenei's statement and raise hell over Iran's infanticide of the two-month-old agreement. One would expect them to bring it to the forefront of a new debate over the deal in any possible forum – in the U.S., the U.N., and the E.U.

But – nothing.

It may be that these opponents believe that the agreement is a done deal that cannot be stopped and that the current U.S. administration will follow through with it no matter what. This approach reflects not realism but ignorance. Obviously the administration wants to follow through with the deal. But the deal is no longer in it hands. It is Khamenei who is throwing a spanner in the works, declaring that he will not implement the agreement that the West believed it concluded on July 14.

In order to get Iran to implement the agreement, the language of the JCPOA will have to be changed and a new Security Council resolution will have to be passed. While in theory this would not be impossible, it would require a new process, entailing, at the very least, a public political debate in the West – one that would reveal Iran's unreliability as a partner and would cost valuable time. And time is not on the side of the U.S. administration.

Right now, Iran is exposed almost daily as the ally of Russia against the U.S. Three months after the "historic" agreement declared by the White House, Iran continues to seek "Death to America," and the Iranian foreign minister, the "hero" of the agreement, needs to apologize in Iran for "accidentally" shaking hands with the U.S. president. The truth of the agreement is emerging, and it is not certain that what Iran is now demanding will pass.

Interestingly enough, the White House's first reaction was to brush off Khamenei's demand. Iran, said Josh Earnest, should just do what it what it had undertaken to do in the agreement, and stop roiling the waters.[3]

A more sober response followed. There was hope that the meeting set for September 28 between the P5+1 and Iranian foreign ministers, on the margins of the 70th session of the U.N. General Assembly, would produce a solution, but this hope was in vain. Iranian President Rohani fled back to Iran, on the pretext of the hajj tragedy in Mecca, and no one in the West knows how to proceed.

The Western media, for its part, is perpetuating its total blackout on the issue, hoping perhaps for a miracle in the secret U.S.-Iran talks, which this administration has been conducting for years. But even a secret U.S. concession will be no solution. Even if it were to offer a secret commitment to remove the sanctions altogether, Khamenei will not be satisfied. He openly challenged the U.S., and he needs its public capitulation. He will celebrate publicly any secret concession. Moreover, any new U.S. concession will prompt Khamenei to make ever more demands.

The most recent developments, and the emergence of Russia as a new-old contender for power vis-à-vis the U.S. in the world, particularly in the Middle East, will only encourage Khamenei to cling to his tried and true ally, Russia. Indeed, this administration has no objection to Russia's resurgence in the Middle East, but Russia's blatant anti-U.S. stance in every venue except in the private, honeyed Putin-Obama talks will ultimately lead even the blindest of Democrats to realize that Iran is indeed an enemy of the U.S. – as Iran plainly declares – and that any further concessions to it make no sense.

It seems that the worst nightmare of the supporters of the deal – that Iran will do away with the July 14 agreement – is about to come to pass.

Y. Carmon is president and founder of MEMRI.


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: bomb; iran; memri; nuclear; terror; war
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-24 next last

1 posted on 10/02/2015 11:31:45 AM PDT by Dave346
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Dave346

Its more honorable of them not to pretend.


2 posted on 10/02/2015 11:34:15 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

We can only hope...


3 posted on 10/02/2015 11:35:22 AM PDT by MNGal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pearls Before Swine

“Its more honorable of them not to pretend.”

And it’s more “honorable” for us to bomb the Shit out of them!


4 posted on 10/02/2015 11:35:57 AM PDT by vette6387
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

We can only hope. Of course, Obama and Kerry would be more than happy to further capitulate and humiliate the US if they can.


5 posted on 10/02/2015 11:37:16 AM PDT by Truth29
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

God works in mysterious ways for sure. Hope from an unlikely source, and Obama and Kerry are left with egg on their faces.


6 posted on 10/02/2015 11:38:15 AM PDT by Robert DeLong (u)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Robert DeLong

Did the Iranians get their money back and then possibly reject the deeal??

Trump will have a field day with that deal.


7 posted on 10/02/2015 11:41:12 AM PDT by Hang'emAll (If guns kill people, do pencils misspell words?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

Worked out a better one with Putin.


8 posted on 10/02/2015 11:42:26 AM PDT by Resolute Conservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

Obama will give them whatever they want.


9 posted on 10/02/2015 11:49:00 AM PDT by ColdOne (I miss my poochie... Tasha 2000~3/14/11 HillaryForPrison2016)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Hang'emAll
"Did the Iranians get their money back and then possibly reject the deal??

IIRC, sanctions and money will be released later this month.

10 posted on 10/02/2015 11:50:49 AM PDT by cookcounty ("I was a Democrat until I learned to count" --Maine Gov. Paul LePage)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

Once the Iranians get their money, the sanctions lifted, and business deals with the EU, Russia, and China, there is no need for the deal any longer.


11 posted on 10/02/2015 11:54:18 AM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nuconvert; KC_Lion

Ping.


12 posted on 10/02/2015 12:00:50 PM PDT by Army Air Corps (Four Fried Chickens and a Coke)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Hang'emAll

Not that I am aware of other than the 3 billion they got for agreeing to the nuclear deal. Kind of like a signing bonus, or perhaps a good faith bonus might be more accurate.


13 posted on 10/02/2015 12:08:39 PM PDT by Robert DeLong (u)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

Would this mean Kerry might not get his Nobel Peace Prize... yeah no they will give it to him anyway, he tried.


14 posted on 10/02/2015 12:09:28 PM PDT by PoloSec ( Believe the Gospel: how that Christ died for our sins, was buried and rose again)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

To quote a unnamed chess fan at Fischer-Spassky 1972 commenting on the state of USA-USSR relations: “Thank God they’re dumber than we are.”


15 posted on 10/02/2015 12:16:06 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (Heteropatriarchal Capitalist)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

If Putin is now the new power in the middle east, they will kill the petro dollar. This is what Kerry was insinuating when he talked about the deal not going through. I truly believe this deal was over petro dollars and less about nuclear weapons. Putin and China have been setting up a new petro currency for years. Iran may kill this deal because the USA will become neutered to impose any sort of monetary sanctions and they will have military defense from Putin and China.


16 posted on 10/02/2015 12:19:55 PM PDT by rwoodward ("god, guns and more ammo")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

That’s why Kerry used a pencil to write the agreement...now he can erase that word with iran’s choice of a better word. Watch them give in.


17 posted on 10/02/2015 12:23:48 PM PDT by ThePatriotsFlag ( Anything FREELY-GIVEN by the government was TAKEN from someone else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dave346

I think its hysterical.


18 posted on 10/02/2015 12:30:37 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dave346
Full reports in The New York Times and The Boston Globe
19 posted on 10/02/2015 12:45:47 PM PDT by pabianice (LINE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MNGal

**** “We can only hope...” ****

Wouldn’t matter to the ONE, Iran could reject it and Bozo would go ahead and send the 150 Billion (it is the only part he cares about), as Rush always says “Follow the Money”


20 posted on 10/02/2015 1:31:38 PM PDT by TexasTransplant (Idiocracy used to just be a Movie... Live every day as your last...one day you will be right)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-24 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson