U.S. will reach 400 Million Private Firearms by end of Obama Presidency

Gun Watch ^ | 1 September, 2015 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

The National Instant Check System (NICS)  performs a check when people buy firearms from federally licensed dealers in the United States.  It is also used to perform background checks on people applying for firearm carry permits in those states where such permits are required or offered by law.  As there are now over 15 million carry permits in the United States, and firearm sales numbers are in the 10 to 20 million range per year, you can see that the number of NICS checks is not a perfect fit for the number of firearms sold.

One of the reasons for this is that one check can be used to purchase multiple firearms, and most people with carry permits are not required to have an instant check performed when they purchase a firearm.  They had it done when they obtained their permit.

We have a good measure of how many additional firearms are added to the U.S. private stock each year.  That number is compiled by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF).  The ATF tracks licensed firearm manufacture, import, and export numbers.  Those numbers are assembled each year.  ATF takes about 18 months to process the numbers and publish them.  We do not have data on how many used firearms are sold by dealers.  Presumably, they fall into the 40% of NICS checks that are done in excess of the new firearms added.

You can compare the ATF increase in the private firearms stock with the NICS checks done for that year.   The correlation is very high, with r= .9776.  1.0 would be a perfect fit.  At that correlation level, I have confidence in predicting the increase in private firearms from the NICS numbers.

Over the fifteen years that have been recorded, there have been 1.685 NICS checks for each additional firearm added to the private stock in the United States.  Multiplying the NICS check numbers (provided monthly by the FBI) by .5934 gives us a good approximation of the firearms added.

At the end of 2013, the private firearm stock in the United States is estimated at 363.3 million firearms.  16 million were added in 2013.   According the the FBI figures, the NICS checks for 2014 were 20.969 million.  That would be another 12.44 million firearms added in 2014.

In the first seven months of 2015, there were an additional 12.067 million NICS checks.  Another 7.16 million firearms were added.  Continuing that rate for the whole year would bring the total to 12.277 million added in 2015.

At the end of 2015, the stock should be at 388+ million firearms.  Given the current trend, another 12 million or more firearms will be added in 2016, bringing the total stock to 400 million+ firearms by the end of the Obama presidency.

At the end of 2008 and the beginning of the Obama presidency, there were about 308 million private firearms in the United States.   After eight years of President Obama in the highest executive position, I predict that there will be over 400 million.

If the trend for 2013 only is applied to 2014 and 2015  (based on the NICS numbers they are very similar), the 400 million mark will be reached by the end of May, 2016, and by the end of the year, there will be about 409 million private firearms in the United states.

That is a net gain of between 92 million and 101 million firearms in eight years, making President Obama the greatest firearm salesman of all time.

Source for NICS numbers: From fbi.gov(pdf)

©2015 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.  Link to Gun Watch

[Red in Blue PA]

Guns are like potato chips.....you can’t stop at just one.

[Gideon300]

“’Yep! Bought my first gun two weeks ago... Ruger 38 Special Revolver’

Fine handgun. Take care of it and it will last forever. Ruger revolvers are built like tanks.”

You are right about Ruger. The most indestructible handgun I’ve ever owned is a Ruger SP-101 revolver in .357 Mag. For a little more money I think a .357 is a better investment since it can use the less expensive .38 ammo, but also handle the much more powerful .357 cartridge when necessary.

These are fine heirloom investments that will outlast anyone’s lifetime if properly maintained, unlike certain very popular and expensive semi-autos with epoxy or plastic frames.

[Red in Blue PA]

I have a spreadsheet for my guns. If I sold every one at MSRP, I could buy a brand new Mercedes. (Lower end)

In 2007, I owned not a single gun.

[EternalVigilance]

U.S. will reach 400 Million Private Firearms by end of Obama Presidency

Gosh, that's not even two apiece. We better get busy and double that number.

[Ancesthntr]

Now, now I know none of us would do anything like that.

Notice that I didn't identify either the "what" or the "who" that would put "what" at the bottom of many lakes, etc. You and me, we're just law-abiding, taxpaying citizens who mind our own business. Ditto for just about everyone else on this thread...maybe the NSA guys should check out the D.U. for more threatening and unbalanced people, it'll be like shooting fish in a barrel (not that I'd do that if it was illegal).

[ForYourChildren]

“At the end of 2015, the stock should be at 388+ million firearms. Given the current trend, another 12 million or more firearms will be added in 2016, bringing the total stock to 400 million+ firearms by the end of the Obama presidency.”

I really like this. Good news!

It also never ceases to amaze me how many we have and how few accidents there really are.

[Gideon300]

“Now, now I know none of us would do anything like that”

You are right. Most wouldn’t. Talk is cheap, and armchair bad-asses are numerous.

This whole idea has to be thought through rationally. A large number of guns owned doesn’t necessarily equate to increased security for you and your family. Any individual could have 200 guns in the home, but he/she will be able to effectively handle two at the most when the need arises. The rest are potentially just lying there waiting for the “bad guy” to pick up and use against their owner, or be converted into a big score after you are dead.

Think about it: are you seriously prepared mentally to kill another human being? I dare say most are not, and watching gangster movies or reruns of “Diehard” is not preparation. Have you actually seen a person killed? It’s not like the movies when you see it live. Are you, or can you become, hardened to not care about the person in front of you? Fear is an effective motive, but is not the same.

A good percentage of those 400 million firearms are in the hands of people who rarely practice, and some who know precious little about their proper use. They have merely bought a certain peace of mind, and the right to brag and be an internet tough guy.

Gun collectors are another story. I have bought and sold many old military arms over the years because I like them. Some collectors have dozens or hundreds of firearms, but they can hardly be considered in the statistics of the available arms for home defense.

[circlecity]

"For a little more money I think a .357 is a better investment since it can use the less expensive .38 ammo, but also handle the much more powerful .357 cartridge when necessary."

Agreed. Another reason is that I have a .357 lever action Marlin carbine so I like knowing I can shoot its ammo from all my revolvers if need be.

[Marcella]

Well, Mr. Bad Guy. What you know is, you will be dead if you come to my house so you will likely go to another house rather than mine. There are only two ways to get in house from the front and it is nearly impossile to even get to the back of that townhouse. If you did, there is an alarm on that back door, actually there is a motion detctor in the back garden which would be set off if you managed to get back there, plus the back door is alarmed.

I will not hesitate to pull the trigger numerous times if someone is trying to get in. This is Texas and the police will gladly remove the dead body and give me a medal for saving them trouble. :o)

Really, go to another house where you may not end up dead. :o)

[Marcella]

“I see that a lot, I mean a lot. I have many friends that have bought several guns, almost like each time they’re in the gun shop they buy.”

I have numerous legal weapons, some are the gun/rifle types and some are not. It’s wise to have plan A and plan B and plan C and plan D and plan E and plan F, plus backups. :o)

[Lazamataz]

I'm using a military bulldozer.

[Marcella]

“I wouldn’t shoot .38 birdshot at anyone, and in your position I would change it.”

The birdshot is to make sure something hits him immediately and slows him down, likely blinding him forever, and will be quickly followed by hollow points.

[Marcella]

“Think about it: are you seriously prepared mentally to kill another human being?”

If that person is trying to get in my house or is in my house, he is there to kill me and I won’t hesitate to kill him.

No person should buy a gun if he/she isn’t prepared to shoot in at a bad guy. Never pick up a gun if you aren’t prepared to shoot it. Hesitation will get you killes.

[Marcella]

There is a locked gate to get to those houses so you will have to take it down with your military bull dozer and the noise will alert the home owners, plus there is a camera trained on the gate so your picture will be taken at the gate. Just smile for the camera and we’ll find you. :o)

[Lazamataz]

I'm using a Chinook to airlift the Military Bulldozer over the gate.

[Man from Oz]

I have a spreadsheet too! Yea, MSRP .... The key is to buy the good stuff. The value rarely goes down.

[Marcella]

“I’m using a Chinook to airlift the Military Bulldozer over the gate.”

Let’s just go directly to the chase. You let me know when you are coming and I’ll go to the gate and shoot you right then so you don’t have to go to extreme methods to get inside the gate. However, if you choose to be nice, you can come live with me inside the townhouse and be totally safe with water and food, etc., provided to you. (This is called using honey instead of lead to solve a problem.) :o)

[Lazamataz]

Ok, lets go with the less Chinooky-Military-Bulldozery technique.

May I come live with you during the Zombie Apocalypse?

[Marcella]

“May I come live with you during the Zombie Apocalypse?”

Of course you may. I have a long machete you can use to dispatch (cut off) heads.

[Lazamataz]

YAY! I can bring a Chinook helicopter and Military Bulldozer.