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Spoiler Alert in VA Governor Race
Legal Insurrection ^ | 9/13/2013 | Laurel Conrad

Posted on 09/13/2013 5:38:57 AM PDT by markomalley

Spoiler candidate alert: Libertarian Robert Sarvis is a third-party candidate in the 2013 Virginia governor’s race. Although polling reveals that it is unlikely for him to win, will he split votes away from Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli in the process?

Election day is less than 60 days away, and Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry McAuliffe are in crunch time.  However, neither candidate option fully satisfies voters. According to a recent poll of likely voters, only 34% of likely voters hold McAuliffe in a “favorable” opinion, and only 35% hold Cuccinelli in this regard.

Reflecting the mood of the Virginia race, Barton Hinkle likened the choice to “choosing between Sauron and SpongeBob Squarepants.”

For Virginia voters torn by this dilemma, Robert Sarvis may be an exciting prospect.  Born and raised in the Northern Virginia area, he possesses a background prime for Virginia politics. Impressively, he received his undergraduate degree from Harvard, went on to receive a degree in mathematics from the University of Cambridge, a J.D. from N.Y.U School of Law,  and a Master’s in economics from George Mason University.

Sarvis champions the campaign slogan, “Virginia: Open-minded, and Open for Business.” According to his campaign website, he espouses ideals of personal and economic freedoms. Having a mixed race heritage, he promises to bring diversity to the position.

However, despite his impressive background, it is unlikely that Sarvis offers Virginians a plausible alternative winner.

Notably, his greatest obstacle is that as a third party candidate, he does not command the same media spotlight or campaign spending dollars as McAuliffe or Cuccinelli. For example, he was not invited to a recent Virginia gubernatorial candidate debate.

But, will Sarvis be to blame if Cuccinelli loses the election?

At this time, Cuccinelli seems likely to lose whether Sarvis runs or not. For evidence, compare polling data that pairs only Cuccinelli and McAuliffe against each other, to data that includes all three candidates. When only Cuccinelli and McAuliffe are paired, McAuliffe is in the lead at 48%-42%. Meanwhile, data that includes all three candidates depicts McAuliffe at 45.2%, Cuccinelli at  37.3%, and Sarvis is a distant third at 9.5%.

Judging by this criteria, it appears that McAuliffe is the front-runner, with or without Sarvis, for the time being. However, as the momentum of his campaign picks up, this may change in the future.


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To: JRandomFreeper

What does that have to do with my comment?

BTW, as was mentioned, it was Cuccinelli who pushed for the convention AGAINST the wishes of the GOP-e.


81 posted on 09/13/2013 11:21:16 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
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To: JRandomFreeper
OK, you're not a troll. Big deal.

But, based on this thread, I suspect you're not a full-blown conservative, either. There are 3 stool legs to conservatism - social, fiscal and defense. If you don't have all 3 legs, your conservatism falls flat.

I probably would classify you as a libertarian with some conservative tendencies. And there's nothing wrong with that -- if that's your ideology.

I understand your frustration with the GOP-e, I really do. I'm just as frustrated.

But advocating support for a Libertarian candidate who is pro-abortion and pro-amnesty just to spite the GOP-e while helping elect a slimy Clintonite is lunacy.

Spite the GOP-e in primaries - absolutely! Support a 3rd party conservative in a general election - fine. Stay home if there is no 3rd party conservative candidate - okay. At least you remain consistent to your ideals.

And - as your 4th option - if you have to compromise your ideals, hold your nose and vote for the guy who offends you the least.

82 posted on 09/13/2013 11:21:37 AM PDT by Sideshow Bob
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To: Gabz
No, I have not said he was part of the GOP-E.

Yes, I have attacked the GOP in general, and those that blame GOP losses on 3rd party spoilers, when liberal candidates are the primary cause of losses.

/johnny

83 posted on 09/13/2013 11:22:42 AM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: Sideshow Bob
I NEVER advocate support for pro-abortion candidates. Ever. Or anti-gun candidates, or big-government candidates.

/johnny

84 posted on 09/13/2013 11:24:42 AM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: KevinB
If he is so great why do only 35% of republicans support him? A candidate the base does not care for is not going to win.

How many laws is the guy talking about repealing? How many pro-gun laws is he talking about? How many times in his past has he pushed grassroots conservative causes? How can those that destroyed the country fix the problem?

85 posted on 09/13/2013 11:30:10 AM PDT by SpeakerToAnimals (I hope to earn a name in battle)
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To: JRandomFreeper
Your first comment on this thread:

Crappy GOP-E candidates are the enemy.

Here's another:

If you run a bad candidate, blaming the voters for not voting for your guy is pretty stupid.

And yet another -

The weak GOP-E candidates seem to be doing a great job of allowing perverts into the classroom. I guess that's what you want. As I said, if you have to worry about 3rd party spoilers, your candidate sucks. What is your plan to get more conservative GOP candidates?

Now tell me you haven't said he was part of the GOP-e -- we are talking about a specific candidate here, not some generic hypothesis.

We have a conservative candidate, but you choose to ignore that fact. Why?

Every attack ad I have seen aimed at him is because of his conservative creds, and that goes for the rest of the ticket.

86 posted on 09/13/2013 11:36:04 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
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To: JRandomFreeper

actually both


87 posted on 09/13/2013 11:36:56 AM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: SpeakerToAnimals
This retread loser the GOP-e stuck the voters with is the spoiler. When the choice is between a big government statist leaning left or a big government statist claiming to not lean left, in spite of evidence to the contrary, people look elsewhere.

Care to elaborate on this............as I've got no clue of who or what your are speaking.

88 posted on 09/13/2013 11:39:15 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
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To: Gabz
Those are generalizations aimed at those whining about 3rd party spoilers. Not an attack or characterization of this candidate. I am sorry if I was not clear about that.

If he is conservative, and you guys want him, I wish him all the best.

I am however, tired of the whiners here on FR blaming their losses on 3rd party when crappy candidates are generally the problem.

Of course, it's easier to whine about 3rd party than it is to close the primaries in a state.

Kudos to VA for doing that.

/johnny

89 posted on 09/13/2013 11:40:09 AM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: JRandomFreeper
I NEVER advocate support for pro-abortion candidates. Ever. Or anti-gun candidates, or big-government candidates.

Didn't you advocate supporting the Libertarian candidate for the VA governor's race to spite the GOP-e in this thread?

90 posted on 09/13/2013 11:53:02 AM PDT by Sideshow Bob
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To: Sideshow Bob
No, I did not.

I have said repeatedly that people need to quit whining about 3rd parties and look to the crappy candidates if they lose.

/johnny

91 posted on 09/13/2013 11:54:57 AM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: JRandomFreeper
I am however, tired of the whiners here on FR blaming their losses on 3rd party when crappy candidates are generally the problem.

I understand what you are saying, and I agree. I don't personally know anyone who thinks he's a crappy candidate, although I do know many think so, but they also supported the Lt Gov and an open primary, I didn't support either.

92 posted on 09/13/2013 11:58:53 AM PDT by Gabz (Democrats for Voldemort.)
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To: SpeakerToAnimals

Give me a break. Maybe you ought to worry about Colorado, which has a lot more problems that VA does, and let us worry about VA.


93 posted on 09/13/2013 12:26:30 PM PDT by KevinB (A country that would elect Barack Obama president twice is no longer worth fighting for.)
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To: JRandomFreeper
No, I did not. I have said repeatedly that people need to quit whining about 3rd parties and look to the crappy candidates if they lose.

Why the huge defense for 3rd parties? Sometimes the 3rd party independent candidates ARE the cause of a Republican defeat in a plurality election.

Here's an example. Last year in Wisconsin, an out-of-state Tea Party group and other purportedly conservative independent national groups supported a 2012 Senate primary candidate - Mark Neumann - whom local Wisconsin conservatives had rejected as phony.

In 2010, Neumann was badly losing the Republican primary race for governor and objected to the GOP convention endorsing his opponent. Neumann even threatened to run to the left as a 3rd party candidate in the general election against now-Gov. Scott Walker.

Neumann resurfaced in the 2012 Senate race and was directly responsible for GOP-e former governor Tommy Thompson winning the primary with a 35% plurality of the vote. The other 3 candidates, 2 actual conservatives and Neumann, split the majority conservative primary vote. If Neumann had simply dropped from the race when it became evident he could not win, Wisconsin's GOP Senate nominee and likely current junior Senior would have been a conservative private businessman.

Let VA elect their own candidate and if they want to whine about the 3rd party causing a defeat, let them. It's their state. Besides, their whining about 3rd parties being harmful could be accurate!

94 posted on 09/13/2013 12:41:10 PM PDT by Sideshow Bob
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To: PMAS

Yes, if they elected MacAulife then they deserve their fate of a higher taxes, business fleeing, etc.


95 posted on 09/13/2013 12:47:31 PM PDT by Fledermaus (Note to the NSA: I approved this dissention. What are you going to do about it Punks?)
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To: Fledermaus
Yes, if they elected MacAulife then they deserve their fate of a higher taxes, business fleeing, etc.

The Virginia House of Delegates is 2/3 Republican. The Virginia Senate is 20R/20D. The Republicans did recently approve a tax increase and a couple of the supporters were successfully primaried as as a result. That was a warning to the other squishy Rs. McAuliffe's only role would be as a spoiler. He would not be able to get much, if anything, actually done. That said, I sure don't want him to win.

96 posted on 09/13/2013 12:56:31 PM PDT by KevinB (A country that would elect Barack Obama president twice is no longer worth fighting for.)
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To: tm61

Not to mention government employees


97 posted on 09/13/2013 1:47:02 PM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: amnestynone

“Thank you Libertarians last time you and other third party conservatives cost us 8 houe seats a US Senate seat and 1 governorship.”

You are welcome. Sounds like you are a three year old and you have lost your lollypop.

If a candidate desires my vote he needs to earn it. LIMITED G’Ment at ALL levels


98 posted on 09/13/2013 2:34:16 PM PDT by DanZ
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To: TheRhinelander

“Third party candidates elect Democrats. Libertarians need to be outlawed.”

Spoken like a true Communist - Zig Hail


99 posted on 09/13/2013 2:35:18 PM PDT by DanZ
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To: DanZ

Vernon parker a promising conservative lost to K. Sinema a looney lefty thanks to the libertarians. Jonathon Patton lost to Ann Kirkpatrick in the same state. Of course that radical leftist Republican Mia Love lost because of the libertarians as well. Frank Giunta lost to Carol Che Porter thanks to the libertarians. Rehberg a perfectly good Conservative congressman lost to Testor for the same reason in the Montana Senate race. Boy, I guess you guys really showed them. See what happens when you put the Dem’s in charge permanently and see if there isn’t a difference between Dem’s and Republicans. I guarantee you will never get the country back. See how you feel then.


100 posted on 09/13/2013 4:42:50 PM PDT by amnestynone (Lindsey Graham is feckless, duplicitous, treacherous, double dealing backstabbing Corksucker.)
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