Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Question on Intrade
self | 11/04/2012 | self/vanity

Posted on 11/04/2012 9:33:22 PM PST by freedomrings69

If polls and commentators such as Barone and Morris are correct and Romney is going to win big then Intrade is way off. Is there any precedent for Intrade showing such off results this close to an election? I know in 2004 after phony exit polls were released they had Kerry way up, but right now I see no published items that would indicate traders using real money should be so heavy for Obama. Some have said Intrade is being manipulated but is there any precedent for that?


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: election; intrade; romney

1 posted on 11/04/2012 9:33:28 PM PST by freedomrings69
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

I just did a search on here only using Intrade as the search and there are a few recent threads on here that have some interesting theories and discussions. Did it about an hour ago.

I was curious myself.


2 posted on 11/04/2012 9:37:15 PM PST by Jayster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

Two words. Obamacare ruling.


3 posted on 11/04/2012 9:37:28 PM PST by Viennacon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

Remember, InTrade’s values are based entirely on what “shares” people are buying. Note that there was a huge spike in the Zer0’s “price” a month or so ago. My guess is people are pumping the stock so they can dump it in the next day or so before Zer0 craters at the polls. Most of the time, “crowdsourced” predictions are pretty accurate, but there’s a lot of subjective emotion around presidential candidates in general and this one in particular.


4 posted on 11/04/2012 9:41:17 PM PST by Little Pig (Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

This is a gambling site and as such, US folks cannot participate.

If you have Europe and Asia speculating, I see how they get the results.

If I can legally get in on this, let me know how to do it.

I could use a few dollars.


5 posted on 11/04/2012 9:46:48 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

This concept might give you some useful perspective:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory


6 posted on 11/04/2012 9:50:44 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

Intrade was accurate on the 2008 presidential election and the 2010 house elections. In the latter, Intrade predicted a Republican pickup of 60 vs the actual pickup of 62. This year it’s Obama all the way again.

But of course it’s hard to judge the accuracy of a probabilistic prediction. Intrade is only giving Obama a 65% probability, so there’s still a 35% probability that he’ll lose. Roughly speaking, the probability figure means that in 100 situations “just like” the current one, the candidate with the type of evidence associated with Obama will win. The true result for 2012 is either Obama or not Obama.

The Intrade probability for Obama will continue to migrate to either 1 or 0 as we get closer to the actual results being determined (whenever that is).

I’ve just been reading some of the comments on the Intrade Obama bet. “magic kingdom”, whoever he is, rocks. The inane opposing comments indicate that it’s knuckleheads supporting the Obama side of the bet.


7 posted on 11/04/2012 9:55:47 PM PST by AZLiberty (No tag today.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jet Jaguar

From the reading I did you cannot fund your intrade account from an American bank. I guess if you had a foreign bank account, in a country that did not have similar rules, you could fund it. What about the University in Iowa that has futures trading on political events? Is that closed to Americans?


8 posted on 11/04/2012 9:56:01 PM PST by freedomrings69
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

Due to work regulations, I cannot have a foreign bank account.

I do not know if the Iowa thing is happening this cycle.


9 posted on 11/04/2012 9:59:00 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: AZLiberty

Ha, yeah. I’ve been tracking the comments too and liked some of what magic kingdom has been saying.


10 posted on 11/04/2012 10:04:08 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Jet Jaguar
I am not aware of any definitive rulings determining that Intrade is “illegal”. They have thousands of accounts owned by Americans. I'd love to see a link about someone who ran afoul of the authorities.

You won't be able to gamble this time around however because they don't take credit cards or paypal from Americans... you have to send them a check through the mail.

As far as their accuracy on presidential elections... for the price of a couple of local TV ads their predictions can be easily manipulated. Plus you have to look at who the majority of “investors” actually are. Most of them are likely Europeans from socialist countries who favor Obama by a wide margin. So although they may be accurate on some things... I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep over their “predictions” for this election.

11 posted on 11/04/2012 10:04:52 PM PST by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: fireman15

Clearly the amount of money involved would be pocket change to a Soros who wanted to manipulate. The only question is why is this the first time he (or whoever) would have done it?


12 posted on 11/04/2012 10:09:56 PM PST by freedomrings69
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: fireman15

Most of the predictions are only going to be as good as the available public info, such as polls and what not, much of which have been contradictory and/or non-representative. Though regardless, there’s more than enough ‘evidence’ out there—albeit of questionable epistemic worth—to cherry-pick whatever’s favorable to one’s biases.

I do imagine there’s at least a handful of investors on there with inside information from private polls, etc. who know the real score, but you won’t see any drastic movement in price from them until the last minute IMO.


13 posted on 11/04/2012 10:14:21 PM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Jayster

Intrade predicted Sharon Angle would crush Harry Reid.


14 posted on 11/04/2012 10:41:36 PM PST by Ashok0
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

Does anyone know if it is allowed to “short” on intrade?

I suspect they don’t. If they did, if someone is pumping up 0bama’s odds as is strongly suspected, if shorting were allowed, smart money would take that side of the trade. That and also how delusional the Europeans are with their leftist bias.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 10:41:45 PM PST by crusader_against_lumpens
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jayster
  Coal stocks have gone up recently - although many of them look pretty volatile.

  By the way, I like coal. I'm going to make sure we can continue to burn clean coal - Romney during the Denver debate

  so that's an indicator to me that more people in the market are betting on a Romney victory.

  disclaimer: I'm holding some coal stock now
16 posted on 11/04/2012 10:57:42 PM PST by Maurice Tift (You can't stop the signal, Mal. You can never stop the signal.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: crusader_against_lumpens

Wouldn’t buying Romney shares be the same thing as shorting Obama shares?


17 posted on 11/04/2012 11:00:53 PM PST by Ken H
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: AZLiberty
You have foreigners betting on US election results when their only source of information is the American press. How good would Americans do betting on European elections getting their information from Pravda?
18 posted on 11/04/2012 11:05:35 PM PST by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Mike Darancette
Bingo.

I've read better stuff in the British Guardian than I have in most of the big U.S. papers and its staff is slightly to the left of Trotsky. If the staff of the NY Times decides to decline its status as a partner in government and become journalists again, that could change, but I'm sure not holding my breath.

19 posted on 11/04/2012 11:12:34 PM PST by Billthedrill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

Someone is going to have EGG on their face on Wednesday morning..did everyone forget about the Colorado study that predicted a big victory based on economic numbers that even predicted the Gore popular vote victory and the Bush EV victory in 2000?...someone is going to be very very wrong..I was just curious and was looking around and found that there were poll in HAWAII in 2004 that had Bush up and even the RCP average had Bush up..Kerry won by 10 points!


20 posted on 11/04/2012 11:33:34 PM PST by StopDemocratsDotCom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: crusader_against_lumpens
Does anyone know if it is allowed to “short” on intrade?

Check the site. Hint (for those of you in Rio Linda): selling short is selling shares you don't own.

21 posted on 11/04/2012 11:43:12 PM PST by cynwoody
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Jet Jaguar

You are incorrect. I have an Intrade account funded with a international bank wire from my USAA account, although you can also send a check on a U.S. bank. It takes several days for an international wire, and probably 10 days for a check.

I’ve got $5,000 on Romney. It’s a zero-sum game, I either end up with zip or $13,428 on Nov. 7, or whenever the lawsuits and recounting ends. I didn’t fund my account early enough to pick up the big pre-first debate dip in Romney shares to almost $2.00, otherwise I’d be looking at a much larger upside.

I made my trade after carefully evaluating the various polls and methodologies - and gauging the Intrade “investor” base, which I characterize as mostly Obama koolaid drinkers incapable of cognitive thinking.


22 posted on 11/05/2012 12:24:43 AM PST by KAUAIBOUND (Hawaii - paradise infested with left-wing cockroaches and centipedes)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Billthedrill

Don’t worry, when Romney wins the New York Slimes will return to “speaking truth to power” and being objective, and reporting on Presidential scandals etc.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 12:48:00 AM PST by carcraft (Pray for our Country)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Ken H

You would think so. But those are not pared trades. Having the shorting option makes for more efficient markets.
But it does make you think, for sure.
Not enough, mind you, to change my assumptions about Tuesday. I still think Romney pulls off a convincing win.
Euro-leftist delusion is the best explanation IMHO for intrade odds.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 1:10:03 AM PST by crusader_against_lumpens
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: AZLiberty

2008 and 2010 — only two? I read that the University of Colorado electoral predictions are accurate since 1980 and they are leaning Romney.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 1:54:32 AM PST by annajones (Please Act)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: freedomrings69

Exactly. Let’s take a look at the state of the so-called free markets in the world. 1)Libor proven rig job. 2)Dow Jones Propaganda Average-rigged by the PPT. 3) Comex oil, gold and silver-rigged by large trading banks and Fed. 4) Interest market-rigged by the Fed and Treasury 5) Currency exchange rates-rigged by the world’s central banks.

So let’s look at InTrade. A small, several million dollar market perhaps. No transparency, no idea who owns, who’s buying and who’s selling. With a small several million investment it would be extremely easy to manipulate the standings. This would fit in nicely with O’s strategy of manipulating the pollsters to make it appear that his re-election is inevitable, thereby discouraging turnout and flipping those voters who like to vote for the winner.

No proof for any of this, but it is certainly feasible.


26 posted on 11/05/2012 3:58:18 AM PST by appeal2 (Don't steal, the government hates competition.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson