Posted on 11/01/2012 5:58:56 PM PDT by parksstp
A Time Period for when each state will be Projected, based on the state's poll closing times. (All times in Eastern Standard Time).
7PM - The first polls close in 6 States (GA, SC, IN, KY, VT, and VA). At exactly 7 PM, Romney will be declared the Projected winner in SC(9) and KY(8), while Obama will be declared the projected winner in VT(3). GA(16) and IN(11) will probably be declared too "EARLY" to call, but will most likely be in Romney's column by the time the next set of state polls close. VA will be too CLOSE to call. This first set of Poll closings will give Romney a 44-3 Electoral College Lead by 7:30PM EST.
7:30PM - Polls close in NC, OH, and WV. Romney will immediately be Projected the winner in WV (5). Ohio (18) will be too CLOSE to call. It will be interesting to see whether NC(15) gets classified as too "EARLY" or too "CLOSE" to call. I believe it will take about 45-60 minutes before NC gets called for Romney. So by 8PM EST, Romney will have a 49-3 Electoral College Lead.
8:00PM - Polls close in AL, CT, DE, FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MS, MO, NH, NJ, OK, PA, RI, TN, and DC. Romney will immediately be declared the winner in AL(9), MS(6), OK(7), and TN (11). Obama will immiediately be declared the winner in CT(7), DE(3), IL (20), ME(4), MD(10), MA(11), RI(4), and DC(3). MO (10) and NJ(14) will both be initially classified as too "EARLY" to call, though I suspect the networks to call NJ(14) for Obama before 8:30 and hold off on calling MO for Romney to give the appearance of Obama catching up in the Electoral vote. PA (20), FL(29), and NH(4) all get classified as too "CLOSE" to call. So, by 8:30PM, the Electoral Count will be ROMNEY 82, and OBAMA 79
8:30PM - The time period between 8:30-9:00 should be interesting for Romney. Polls close in AR(6) where Romney will immediately be Projected the winner. It is also during this timespan that I suspect enough data will come in to call NC(15) and eventually MO (10) for Romney, though I know the networks will put it off for as long as they can. I have the NC call pegged for 8:35-845 and MO 8:50-9:00. On the other hand, I think the networks will want to get these out of the way because Romney is going to have a good 9'oclock hour. So, by 9PM, I have the Electoral Count as ROMNEY 113, OBAMA 79.
9:00PM - Polls close in AZ, CO, KS, LA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, SD, TX, WI, and WY. Romney will immediately be declared the Projected winner in KS(6), NE(5), SD(3), TX(38), and WY(3). Obama will be declared the Projected winner in NY(29). AZ, LA, MN, and NM will be classified as too "EARLY" to call, while CO and WI will be too CLOSE to call. Like NC, not sure if MI will get "EARLY" or "CLOSE" status and it could say a lot which terminology is used. Sometime between 9-930PM when some actual vote totals come in, Romney will be declared the winner in AZ(11) and LA(8). It will frustrate the networks that they'll have to wait on NM (5) and MN(10), but eventually (around 9:30-9:40PM) will get called for Obama. Since no polls close at 9:30, a lot of focus will be on the states back in East. VA takes about 3-3.5 hours to count without snafus. If the networks can't call it or PA before the west coast polls close, this is a good sign for Romney. By 10:00PM EST, I expect the Electoral Vote count to be ROMNEY 187 and OBAMA 123
10:00PM - Polls close in IA, MT, NV, and UT. Romney will immediately be projected the winner in UT(6). MT(3) will be classified as too "EARLY" to call, but should be in Romney's column by 10:30-10:40. NV and IA will both be classified as Too "CLOSE" to call. Again, there are no poll closings at 10:30, so focus will come back to the Eastern states. I suspect the networks will try to call MI(16) close to 11:00 to give Obama a big push when the west coast states close. Also, by this time if the networks can call PA (20) for Obama based on data in Philly and the suburban counties, they will do so by 10:50PM. These are states that wern't supposed to be hotly contested, but the spin will be that Obama is pushing back ahead with the closing of the polls in CA. By this point, I think FL(29) will be able to be called for Romney, but the networks absolutely won't do it until AFTER 11PM. By 11:00PM, I expect the Electoral Count to be ROMNEY 196, OBAMA 159
11:00PM - Polls Close in CA(55), ID(4), ND(3) HI(4), OR(7), and WA(12). Romney is immediately declared the winner in ID(4) and ND(3), while Obama is immediately declared the winner in CA(55), HI(4), and WA(12). Oregon will be classified as Too "EARLY" to call. After these immediate 11:00PM projections, the Electoral Count will be OBAMA 230, ROMNEY 203. And now you see why the networks will not call FL, VA or any other battleground looking good for Romney prior to 11:00PM.
11:30PM - The networks have no choice but to now call FL(29) for Romney. To offset Romney taking the Electoral College lead back, the networks will try to call OR(7) before or around the same time. And once the Vegas cheaters get done with their numbers, NV(6) will also be called for Obama before Midnight. By Midnight, the Electoral Count will be OBAMA 243, Romney 232.
12:00AM - Oh, you thought you would be in bed by now? The networks will try to get to midnight with an Obama lead before they are forced to call VA & NH. VA is going to be delayed by a razor thin Senate race, but it SHOULD be called by 12:00AM. NH is more spaced out so they have an excuse to go slower, but these two states when called will probably be called close together, and for Mitt Romney. This will give us ROMNEY 249, OBAMA 243. Meanwhile, reports of shananigans in OH and WI will be widespread. And because the networks love ratings, don't expect a call on these states anytime soon.
1:00AM - Polls close in AK, where Romney is immediately declared the winner. This result forces Obama to win OH or he loses the Election, so all other states become secondary. ROMNEY 252, OBAMA 249
1:30AM - CO (9) is finally called for Romney, who has a 13,000 vote lead with 99%
1:50AM - IA (6) is finally called for Obama, who has a 6,000 vote lead with 762,000 to Romney's 756,000.
This gives us ROMNEY 261, OBAMA 249 by 2:00AM
2:45AM - Obama has about a 9,000 vote lead in WI with 99%. The margin had been much closer until the final numbers from Madison and Milwaukee came in at the end. This gives us ROMNEY 261, OBAMA 259. All eyes turn to OH.
3:00AM - Romney has about a 5,000 vote lead in OH with 100% in, but the networks other than FOX won't declare him the winner. The lawyers parachute in and we get a repeat of 2000.
Official Electoral Vote Tally: ROMNEY 279, OBAMA 259
There are a number of states that can do that who've just never bothered.
I was bookmarking this until I realized that FR will be down.
Count on it.
That’s interesting. Thanks for the work and for posting it.
Here’s hoping NH, Iowa and Wisc go the right way and give up some breathing room for Ohio.
Another thing you’ve forgotten....in at least 20 major cities in swing states demands will be made to keep the polls open late because...well,you know the drill.OH,NC,VA,CO,NV are just a few states where these demands will be made.And we all know that they’ll all be granted because “sympathetic” judges will already have been alerted.
Ping for election night.
I’m praying that our margins prevent the same old late night tricks from the usual places like Madison county etc.
If our (Ravi, LS, and me to a lesser extent) analysis of the early numbers hold true along with even a modest least with independents (6 points) and “undecideds” breaking 2-1 for Romney then I think the final number in Ohio will be too big for any outcome other than Romney wins.
Probably by 1:00 AM just because of network reluctance.
On the other hand I think it’s very possible that RR beats zero by a few points less than the margin Walker won this last time (which was 6.8). If RR is up by even 3% after most counties have reported then no late night tricks will be enough to change the outcome IMO.
Conservatives in Wisconsin have really proved themselves and the GOP counties have gotten smarter about not letting Madison report last.
As long as NH goes our way then all the drama in the world won’t change Ohio.
That would really take the wind out of their (media) sails election night.
I do however agree that if the margins end up being as close as you suggest then the evening would unfold just like you say.
But I don’t think it will be that close and I’m quite confident that the media will have to call FL, VA, and CO much sooner than they would prefer.
I’m more upbeat and don’t believe it will be nearly this close - in fact I believe that New York and New Jersey may be in play.
Yes I’ve been drinking, but I’ve been thinking about the impact of this storm and firmly believe it will change the way that things could progress in those states.
I also think that things are much more likely to go our way early in a number of the states - yes the alphabet media will not be inclined to report it, but if the SOSs put their numbers out on their websites they won’t be able to suppress it. I have a strange feeling that the one maine district may be the first real indicator - if that goes to Mitt then it’ll be a quick/short night no matter what the “calls” are.
But again...I’ve been drinking :)
Never post drinking. But if you do, never admit to it.
It all depends on, of course, what is really happening in IA, NH, WI, NV, and OH, and while I'm not optimistic about NV, the networks may have trouble if several of these start breaking the same way simultaneously.
I don’t want to have come down to Ohio, I have a bad feeling that Obama has this cooked with phoney union bus-in votes, lost absentees, Cleveland graveyard precincts and such. That said I see Romney taking 2 out of 3 in WI, PA, IA to make Ohio moot.
That's said - among other thoughts:
"3:00AM - Romney has about a 5,000 vote lead in OH with 100% in, but the networks other than FOX won't declare him the winner. The lawyers parachute in and we get a repeat of 2000."
Tell me if there have been other developments, but the problem here is that there is a very real possibility in Ohio of 100K to 200K votes being cast as provisional ballots because of the silly practice of sending absentee ballot applications to every single Ohioan.
If you haven't followed this silliness: Because not all people who requested absentee ballots will have used them, when they show up to vote, they will only be allowed to cast a provisional ballot, which will not be opened until 10 days post the election ... it first must be established that they didn't cast an absentee ballot if they had requested one.
Personally, I believe Romney carries Ohio by 3 or more points - likely making the provisionals immaterial, but even with that, I suspect a huge number of provisionals which, were it not for the fact that Romney will have won enough electoral votes from other states, would delay the outcome and leave America in SoreLosermanian lurch.
If Romney is only up by 5000, then you can be sure that they will need to count the provisionals - I believe a wait of 10 days - since presumably the large majority are valid votes by people who had ordered absentees but never sent them in.
Am I wrong?
And Indiana and Kentucky have early poll closings. In a normal year they are projected Republican before 7:00 PM EST.
great post. lets hope that is how it goes down
Not as much as I will be drinking if they above prediction is true.
Slightly incorrect. All voters were mailed absentee ballot REQUESTS. they could send in that request to get a ballot which over 1.6 million have thus far. Only if u sent in ur request will u get a ballot otherwise u vote election day. For those who sent in their request and now have a ballot, you can vote a couple of ways. Mail it in or take it to your election site on or before election day. If u requested a ballot and dont turn it in one way or yhe pther, the only way u can vote election day is PROVISIONALLY.
Nah... it’s just a little sake ... now on tuesday I’ll have the scotch... still haven’t decided if it’s a shot per state or just for swing states... :)
AU - I’m with you, I think PA and MN could be a too close to call, but I feel like the rest may just be the election folks trying to keep their dime knowing it’s a blow out.... still there are stupid people in the world and I do worry the gene pool (as the 3rd law of thermodynamics would indicate) is getting worse.
I see MI/PA/MN too close to call, NC no challenge, FL/VA early call, OH only held for effect, IA and CO go to Mitt - the early voting has been in Mitt’s favor and from the signs I’ve seen (and I drive an hour one way each day around cleveland) it doesn’t indicate any obama fever at all. That all being said my Hoosier homeland returns to it’s Republican nature very early at closing.
and the answer is if your drinking and posting be proud - unlike our politicians at least everyone will nod wisely and understand :)
Nah... it’s just a little sake ... now on tuesday I’ll have the scotch... still haven’t decided if it’s a shot per state or just for swing states... :)
AU - I’m with you, I think PA and MN could be a too close to call, but I feel like the rest may just be the election folks trying to keep their dime knowing it’s a blow out.... still there are stupid people in the world and I do worry the gene pool (as the 3rd law of thermodynamics would indicate) is getting worse.
I see MI/PA/MN too close to call, NC no challenge, FL/VA early call, OH only held for effect, IA and CO go to Mitt - the early voting has been in Mitt’s favor and from the signs I’ve seen (and I drive an hour one way each day around cleveland) it doesn’t indicate any obama fever at all. That all being said my Hoosier homeland returns to it’s Republican nature very early at closing.
and the answer is if your drinking and posting be proud - unlike our politicians at least everyone will nod wisely and understand :)
This is a well thought out presentation, so regardless of its accuracy, I’d at least like to commend the author for its degree of detail.
I remain hopeful, and somewhat bullish, that Romney ends up above 300 electoral votes, so the teams of lawyers landing in Columbus can all pound sand.
Project it for November 7, 2012 at 12:01 a.m. EST.
If romneybtakes PA, it’s pretty much over. Hard to see him taking PA and not also taking OH.
My prediction: We won't know the winner until Nov. 18 -- and even then it will be contested by the losing side [repeat of Florida 2000]
The Ohio provisional ballots will be under lock and key...hmm...who's going to have "access" to those votes????
The Democratic machine is already working overtime to bump the # of Ohio provisional voters...the more provisional votes, the more that the state would not be called for Romney...
Also, the Dems would find all kinds of way to challenge provisional votes not being counted in the Nov. 16-17 count of them...
The MSM's gonna love the ratings...and the Obamaites will love the potential Ohio "end-runs" in play...
My prediction: We won't know the winner until Nov. 18 -- and even then it will be contested by the losing side [repeat of Florida 2000]
The Ohio provisional ballots will be under lock and key...hmm...who's going to have "access" to those votes????
The Democratic machine is already working overtime to bump the # of Ohio provisional voters...the more provisional votes, the more that the state would not be called for Romney...
Also, the Dems would find all kinds of way to challenge provisional votes not being counted in the Nov. 16-17 count of them...
The MSM's gonna love the ratings...and the Obamaites will love the potential Ohio "end-runs" in play...
If Ohio can't even get access to those votes til Nov. 16, with Thanksgiving kicking in, we may be looking @ the first week of December...
Somebody can check Ohio law & see what their deadline is for confirming/verifying provisional voters.
Someone needs to do some homework either on election rules or time zones.
What I want to know is....if the MSM does NOT declare a de facto winner, and in the time following the election it is proven that MASSIVE vote fraud is occurring on the Dem side because they know they lost....what is anybody gonna DO about it?
What I’m HOPING for is such an overwhelming victory for Romney that there’s no POSSIBLE way the networks can hide, spin, or obsfucate the truth. Heck...I wouldn’t be shocked if some of the networks went dark rather than report a Romney win.
Is this Eastern Standard Time now or after Daylight Savings Time goes into effect this weekend?
Actually, I hope it's not that close. I hope it's a repeat of 2010. People & all these polls are stuck on 2008, but this is a different race. Remember Mclame suspended his campaign about a month from the election and didn't put up a fight in the election. He only did as well as he did because of Sarah Palin. Plus, I'm hoping all the conservatives who sat home don't make that mistake again.
What a pathetic exercise in thinking inside of the box. Sounds like parksstp has read one too many articles about how Romney can “eek out” a win.
Sorry, not buying it. All signs point to a wave election. But here’s more evidence that some people are just too insecure to read the writing on the wall.
If only! This one's gonna be close...damn close.Why? Because Romney was giving out inaccurate info in that "secret" tape.It's not 47%.....it's at least 49.5%
Standard time.
Because Romney will be ahead for the first few hours, I confidently predict that the MSM will “magnanimously” refuse to call ANY states until ALL are done voting (so as not to diminish West Coast votes for Obama, of course).
Here's what I'm talking about ....
From Newsmax a few days ago (w/quotes from Ohio officials (Republicans are responsible for this one ...))
“I would just say that this is a potential nightmare-in-waiting,” says Blackwell.
Blackwell believes that could result in an unprecedented number of provisional ballots being filed – some 250,000 or more. Such a large number of ballots being held, presumably under armed guard, for 10 days until they can be opened, would bring to mind the historic 2000 post-election battle in Florida. That recount was marked by ballot disputes — and inevitably, lawsuits.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ohio-provisional-ballots-delay/2012/11/01/id/462413#axzz2B4LVnu2D
Ping for Later Thanks
The information on poll closings came from http://www.270towin.com. They have a page and set the times of state polls closing to the EST in which the last polls in that state close (if it happens to cross two time zones, like FL) which is the earliest it could be called.
They listed all closings in EST to make it simpler, so that’s the model I used.
If you think this was a bad exercise, then this was probably really bad
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdFJFUm1KSTAzMFZaeGJoal9Ob1EwV0E#gid=0
I went county-by-county projecting the vote for Romney and Obama, basing the counties previous results on the Bush/Kerry, Strickland/Kasich, Obama/McCain, and Union question to determine the probable votes for Romney and Obama in each county. My model shows Romney by about 12,000 votes.
Here’s one for Nevada. Same thing, same analyzed race data from 2004, 2008, and 2010. Obama has Romney by at least 3 points here, unless Romney does the unthinkable and runs at the same level as Sandoval, which is highly unlikely.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdDZXaFNqMEYzQXRINUp2OGJZWkc3MWc#gid=0
And then IA. By the margin of one suburb, I think Obama will survive in IA. I don’t see Romney getting to 770,000 votes here, but I don’t see Obama dropping below 765,000.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhTof708DeHWdElyaEVzZzROUW1Zb3l2MGpxcGpIanc#gid=0
Texas polls close at 7pm local time. That means that only Democrat controlled El Paso and some patches of desert will be closing at 9pm eastern. The presidential race will be decided before the North Juarez come in.
Florida might be decided on the Central zone votes, but most of the polls there also close an hour earlier than the ‘poll closing times’ shown on the list.
I plan to verify this Tuesday night.
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