prolly oversampling of RATS
Posted on 08/19/2012 7:56:32 AM PDT by AdamBomb
One would think that after a full week of Ryan and Romney campaigning strong that they would have maintained a lead in the Rasmussen poll.
For the life of me I do not understand how the kenyan can all of a sudden be up 2 points for 3 days in a row.
Any thoughts?
If you are going to wring-your-hands over margin-of-error polling you are nothing more than a concern-troll plying your whiny little trade.
via The Washington comPOST
Obama camp: We are intentionally limiting crowd size.
Ah, sure, yeah...I call that BS!!
My older brother, who lives in WV, agrees w/you. In fact, today is his b’day!
And Obama and Biden’s crowds have fallen FAR FURTHER than our side
prolly oversampling of RATS
Statistical noise, the movement is not significant. It depends on who they happen to poll that day. Day to Day polls are about the most useless poll since you get massive swings based on who answers the phone that day.
I know I’m a lot more fired up about house, senate, and local races this time. Even Pete Hoekstra who has some serious RINO in him is well to the right of Romney and will get my vote.
It is a 3 day tracking poll. 0 must have had a good result on Thursday. Could be an outlyer, we’ll see tomorrow
Happy Birthday to the Mountain’eer!!
Even WV democrats hate O
I agree, it is BS.
Romney is pulling much larger crowds than Obama.
Unemployment is rising, the national debt is rising and Gasoline is near $4 a ga.
Effa Barack Obama!
From the article, an admission they are jimmying the polls: “If Romney was above 50 percent and withstood a month of bad press, that would be a real sign of resilience. But Romney’s not at 50 percent; he’s at 45 percent. And that essentially means that Romney holds the reliably Republican vote, and not very much more.”
But . . . but . . . but . . . the polls always have a GOP sample in the high 20s or very low 30s. How can Romney have the “reliably Republican vote” 45% if the polls show that same “reliably Republican vote” at 30%? And if other polls consistently show Romney taking a 10-15% lead among indies, hmmm. So that puts him by RCP’s idiot reasoning at 60%? And it would “be important” if he was over 50% and hadn’t dropped, but it’s not important if he’s at 45% and hasn’t dropped? So it should be, then, VERY important that Zero, who was in the 80s, is now in the low 40s to high 30s.
I think they just told us pretty much what the REAL election looks like.
The one thing people need to consider is that Obama is going broke spending his campaign cash now. Romney cannot spend his cash until the convention. Then he will have 4 to 5 times the money on hand to spend. It is surprising it is even close considering the unbalance television assault in battle ground states. Also, the superpacs will be unleashed and will start spending too.
No incumbent wants to be under 50% near an election since undecided always break to the challenger. Obama will need an October surprise to survive. He does not value the law or America and will make any immoral sacrifice to keep his job. So, if you want to be scared, wait until October.
Pardon, but nobama is the incumbent, Romney is the challenger. Good thought though. You’re right.
Ras is an ass. He’ll manipulate the election as just another reaility TV show, as do all the pols.
Not once has any poll called an election close enough not to be a laughing joke.
Makes me think the Secret Service is hot on the trail of some killers ~ maybe even the same people Janet Napolitano has been turning loose.
There are other reasons I'm not going to tell you about that make me think that way BTW.
Rasmussen has the best record of all the pollsters.
Still, I believe this is just a statistical anomaly.
The only purpose for these polls is to gauge the effectiveness of the most recent propaganda effort of the MSM.
Remember, even a common broken clock is right twice a day.
I'm expecting someone to come up with a data mining method to effectively reflect public opinion on a moment by moment basis.
Wait until the convention(s).
And I expect we at FR will be the first to complain when they try to stick a microscope up our ***.
I never answer pollsters
They be tappin’ FR
Based on the keywords on this thread, I would swear we are trying to elect Obama.
Good point.
This is the second time when Gallup/Ras have done this temporary flipflop. Notice Ras is likely voters and is always near 100%. Gallup is RV and usually has about 5 to 8% undecided. Gallup compared to Ras usually shows the undecideds in Gallup are evenly split in the Ras Poll. Still not 50% and won’t be.
Alot of people are unwilling to tell the Pollsters(or anyone else) they are not in the bag for BO. They don’t want a visit or to be pressured. They may hold their nose and vote Romney but that is okay with me. Electorially speaking, Romney is already close to a huge victory. The Senate is looking like a Repub. majority and the house isn’t going to change. BO will max out at 46.5% of the Popular vote. If he keeps messing with the MSM he may not get 42%. IMHO
>>>The only purpose for these polls is to gauge the effectiveness of the most recent propaganda effort of the MSM.
Democrats are successful in making this Medicare election.
Romeny failed to define Obama and his failed economic policies.
Even WV democrats hate O
You're right - he keeps me informed. Way to go WV!!
As Romney's pros have repeated, and as he's said, Socon issues aren't part of his campaign.
That puts him the position of debating the looting of Medicare from the cash accounts viewpoint ~ with Obama free to come in and argue that 'but the money is really being taken from thieves".
That's already happened.
Your boy has to put some heart in this stuff or he'll be ignoring even things like the crucifixion and torture of Christians in Egypt.
For all of the legislative baggage Mitt has, I don’t believe he is anywhere as bad as Obama.
Thinking people know that as a Governor of a Deep Blue state he had to reflect his constituents desires.
Though his name is attached to some very liberal laws in Ma he also vetoed 700 bills during his tenure.
I don’t believe Romney is a liberal in his heart
I KNOW Obama is and I KNOW Obama is a Marxist.
BTW, my explanation for the ratchet effect still fits ~ and will continue to fit this particular race. Everything you’ve learned from races where candidates had increasing popularity levels as the race progressed just doesn’t work for this one.
Romney does bother me in his willingness to stick his finger in the air on social matters.
That is why we must secure the Senate and reenforce the Congress!
There is NO truth anymore, everything has a bias to deceive!
You did some mighty calculations there! Kudos. If more voters where like you, we wouldn't be in this mess. YOU say alot about the type FR draws. You remind me of back in the day of the freepers' posts when I was 'lurking to learn'.
THANKS!!
They need to remind the voting public of:
1. US credit Rating Downgrade—the first ever in history
2. The vast increase in food stamp usage under Zero
3. Unemployment
4. Funding Brazil’s energy development
5. Support of theMuslim Brotherhood—who are now crucifying Christians in Egypt.
6. $5 billion in IRS payments to illegal aliens each year
The list goes on and on, and Romney and Ryan need to be hammering on these.
And one of them could have been you!! I just noticed you are from the early ‘98 class. I started lurking in 10/98 and was a bit overwhelmed at all the knowledgeable posters. I said this is MY place! Since one can’t learn with one’s mouth open - I waited unless ‘05 to sign up!
And they need to repeat on and on like a broken record.
Leave medicare in basement.
There is no need to understand Romney plans ( yet to hear one, anyway), just hammer Obama on economy, unemployment and slipping living standard.
I believe that a large part of the problem is that Romney has surrounded himself with a hideously liberal campaign staff. McCain and Crist retreads. They have absolutely no idea how to appeal to the right — because all of their instincts and experience are hard left. Hence, every time Obama hands Romney an issue, they pass it right back in to Obama’s hands (the lying romney killed my wife ad, for example).
Worse yet, Romney’s leftwing confederacy of dunces actually believes that if they just espouse enough lib positions, the left will abandon Obama for Romney. And, it ain’t gonna happen.
In short, unless Romney replaces his leftwing whore corps with conservatives, we are in for an Obama landslide.
I believe that a large part of the problem is that Romney has surrounded himself with a hideously liberal campaign staff. McCain and Crist retreads. They have absolutely no idea how to appeal to the right — because all of their instincts and experience are hard left. Hence, every time Obama hands Romney an issue, they pass it right back in to Obama’s hands (the lying romney killed my wife ad, for example).
Worse yet, Romney’s leftwing confederacy of dunces actually believes that if they just espouse enough lib positions, the left will abandon Obama for Romney. And, it ain’t gonna happen.
In short, unless Romney replaces his leftwing whore corps with conservatives, we are in for an Obama landslide.
You seem to have forgotten which state Romney served as governor. It's as blue as blue can get.
While I strongly disagree with those who claim Romney is as much a socialist as Obama, we're not talking about a right-wing extremist here. In fact, I have not yet decided if Romney is just to the left or just to the right of Bill Clinton. But there's one thing I do know, he can win blue states. He was governor of one.
Yes, this election is Romney's to lose.
“....Onama appears to be the outsider and incumbent.”
uhhhhh, Obama is the incumbent. I think you mean the outsider and challenger......
I wonder if part of that was that it was at a different time than it normally comes. Usually the VP announcement is a day or two before the convention begins, so it may be hard to net out convention bounce from VP bounce. At any rate, both Romney and Ryan need to show themselves very well at the convention, especially Romney who is still sort of a cipher to the public, I think.
45% doesn't mean what you think it means looked at that way. Rather, if your expectation from prior data and experience was that it ought to be 46%, getting 45% wouldn't be 'good enough', it'd be a DISASTER.
On the other hand if your expectation was 30%, 45% would be 'more than meeting expectations' ~ or a good score ~ and the final report would go in your record with an 'atta boy'.
When we have a trend-line as our sine qua non ~ then we want to see how things were going in prior periods and even prior years. We want to see if a specific process (e.g. getting Romney elected) looks like it's on track, or doing better than planned, or worse than expected.
You'd be doing that right up to the final two weeks then you'd pay for a real poll with a lot of sample cells, and some nuanced questions, and you'd drop more money on 2 or 3 of them than you did all the others for the last 4 years.
We are not there yet. So, what do these polls mean for Romney from the Romney team point of view? Basically, a Six Sigma analysis would tell Romney HE IS A WINNER. That's because he more than meets his own expectations and his own history, and, his opponent, Obama, is not doing as well as his own history, nor his expectations.
And all of that is probably a Happyvalley situation for the Mittbots until we look at the big clock on the wall and notice that Romney still hasn't hit 50% on a real election in his life. Best he could do in MA was 49.77%. In most of his primary elections (counting 2008) he was down in the lower two digits at best, and sometimes in single digits.
Later primaries without competition, or where political chacanery had destroyed the process (eg VA 2012) really don't count in a Six Sigma reviewed ~ there, you'd be getting shown the exit door to the plant. Told to get your car off the lot machschnell.
So, we have a guy looking at his stuff in isolation, or in comparison to Obama ~ who is showing up to this election with a 10 million vote overhang in the last ~ and it's neck and neck every now and then.
His aggregate career performance (this production line this decade) is really not up to snuff ~ it's erratic, too many questionable performances, no real showings up against competetors of equal status, and he's hidden half the data files!
OK, so that's a quality review ~ two weeks before the election we should get some new, good life data drawn from a sufficient number of points on the compass, and then the fun is all gone. Both candidates will know from the second poll then if one of them is a winner or a loser. At the same time such a poll at this point would be meaningless. The fickel public is fickel, so we are stuck with Six Sigma and it doesn't look good for Romney. At the same time Obama has cheated in every election he's entered, so we'd fired him if we'd caught him.
“...(and) change the economy of the USA for the better thanks to way lower yearly compliance costs....”
It’s a job killer....think of all those out of work CPAs!/s
The Media relies on this revenue stream once every 4 years to balance their books.
They wont let it slip away.
I did mean challenger. Obama’s campaign has me spinning around so much I said that in error. He’s acting like Romney has been in the WH the last 3+ years.
Well, thanks. No harm in lurking.
That's the one election Romney ever won in Massachusetts.
Dude imagines he's politically astute and he never broke 50%
Yup. I agree. Problem is, another 4 years of Obama and anybody to the right of Sanders will be unelectable. Mark my words.
The GOP needs to drop Romney if they really have any chance of defeating Obama.
Even with Ryan there is just too many voters burnt on Romney, his record, his stance and his image.
And these voters are very very firm in their belief, no matter what tactic to make Romney more acceptable.
Romney just won’t work.
Ryan apparently does have something the people believe in, but just not enough.
His ACU rating has dropped 15% from 2010 to 2011 ~ anyone have any idea how that happened?
Rasmussen shows the electoral college has shifted towards Romney. Romney is now ahead in Wisconsin, Iowa and Florida. Tied in Ohio, Colorado and Virginia and closing the gap in Pennsylvania. North Carolina and Indiana are now red states again. These were all states that the Kenyan won in 2008 and he won’t be winning them this time around. Rasmussen also shows MI, NH, NV, ME, MN, and OR are no longer safe either. (I don’t believe Romney will win all of those, but it does show which way the wind is blowing) Meanwhile, the Kenyan can’t break out of the low 40’s no matter what he throws at them.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.