Since the death of Senator Helms, NC has moved sharply to the left. Only he could explain conservatism in a way that the people of NC could understand it.
“Since the death of Senator Helms, NC has moved sharply to the left. Only he could explain conservatism in a way that the people of NC could understand it”
If you look at the Forbes Magazine “Where people are moving” map you can see a flood of immigration entering the state from the NE. The conservative vote is being dangerously diluted in this state.
I'll have to disagree, with all due respect, that North Carolina has moved sharply to the left. A drift toward moderation on some social issues, perhaps, but no hard left turn.
I loved Jesse, but his races were always close -- he won with 52 or 53% in each of his five Senate wins, and he was very lucky in his opposition.
In 1972, incumbent conservative Democrat Senator B. Everett Jordan was running for reelection, but it was an open secret that he was terminally ill with cancer. He was upset in the Dem primary by Nick Galifianakis, who was an outspokenly liberal Congressman from Chapel Hill. Nixon's reelection rout over McGovern provided coattails for Helms and other Republican candidates across the South.
In 1978, the Dems had the perfect candidate lined up to oust Helms, in banker Luther Hodges, Jr., son of a popular, moderate former governor. And with the Dem machine behind Hodges -- he lost in the primary to the populist, somewhat batty Commissioner of Insurance, John Ingram. Helms, for the second time, caught a break due to the results of the Dem primary, and won in November.
In 1984, at last, Jesse Helms had strong opposition. The strongest possible, in fact, in the person of the very popular Governor, Jim Hunt. I think it's safe to say that Hunt would have ousted Helms in just about every year -- except 1984. Reagan whipped Mondale in NC by a 62-38 margin that year, and Helms was able to squeeze out a win over Hunt in an epic (and record-setting at the time in terms of election spending) battle.
In 1990, Democrats nominated Harvey Gantt, who had, three years previously, lost his reelection race for Mayor of Charlotte. Much was made of the fact that Gantt was black, but I doubt that made much of a net difference; certainly some voted against Gantt because of his race, but others voted for him for the same reason. Ultimately, Gantt lost because he was a liberal.
In 1996, rather inexplicably, the Dems nominated Gantt again, even though he had held no political office since his 1987 Mayoral loss. Dole's 49-44 win over Clinton in NC probably didn't provide significant coattails, but it didn't hurt. Helms won again.
With respect to the influx of people moving into NC from blue states, I submit that the political changes in NC have been milder than some believe. We are not getting a cross-section of people from, say, New Jersey -- rather, we're getting entrepreneurs, corporate relocations, and retirees with enough assets to move to the NC mountains or coast. To be a bit cruel about it, those who can leave New Jersey (or other rust belt states) do. We're getting a lot of new red residents from the blue states; those left behind make those blue states bluer.
Look at the Presidential election returns from NC counties which are receiving the biggest northern influx -- my own Union County (Charlotte burbs), Johnston County (Raleigh burbs), or Carteret County (coastal resort). Those counties are getting more Republican, not less.
It is true, of course, that Obama carried NC by a whisker; and it is tempting to chalk that up to new NC residents from the north. But a look at county by county returns doesn't bear that out. The results were more a function of a weak GOP nominee, and a massive black turnout.
And to return to the subject of the thread (apologies for the highjack), that massive black turnout is likely to disappear for next month's elections, with no Obama atop the ticket. That fact, plus a national Republican/conservative/tea party wave gives the GOP a very good chance of capturing the NC Senate and/or the NC House, despite the anti-GOP gerrymandering. Should the GOP manage to take both houses, the new gerrymandering (which cannot be vetoed by Governor Dumplin') should be most entertaining to watch.