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Posted on 10/10/2001 5:02:15 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

NEW YORK -- Will President Bush's vow to go after international terrorists and those who protect them spill over into Latin America? How will it affect U.S. policy on Cuba, which is on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist states, or Venezuela, which critics say has friendly ties with anti-American armed movements around the world?

I posed these questions to several U.S. officials and well-placed former U.S. diplomats last week, and found a near consensus that the war on terrorism won't be fought anywhere near Latin America, and is unlikely to result in major changes in Washington's policies in the region in the near future.

U.S. TOO BUSY

The Bush administration is too busy trying to chase suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network in Afghanistan and the Middle East to spend much time thinking about terrorist links in Latin America, many of those interviewed said.

In addition, the United States will avoid raising Cuba's open support for armed movements in the past, or its most recent role as a sort of Club Med for international terrorists, for fear of bringing up potentially divisive issues that could annoy some members of the U.S.-sponsored anti-terrorist coalition, others said.

But U.S. officials say the Bush administration will most likely keep Cuba on the U.S. list of ``terrorist states'' because it provides safe haven to Basque ETA terrorists, members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and other insurgent groups and keeps close ties with radical Arab organizations.

If anything, the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the United States will effectively kill U.S. congressional moves to ease the U.S. embargo on the Castro regime.

A recent effort by some U.S. congress members to lift a U.S. travel ban on the island is doomed, because Congress is highly unlikely to vote for a measure that could provide economic relief to a country tied to terrorism, officials say.

Recent press reports that the Bush administration held unusual contacts with Cuba as part of its efforts to gather information on the Sept. 11 attack on the United States are ``Cuban misinformation,'' one U.S. official told me.

The United States did not make a special outreach effort to Cuba, nor did it get anything from Fidel Castro's regime, he said.

As for Venezuela, the conventional wisdom in U.S. diplomatic circles is that the Bush administration will try to avoid a confrontation with the oil-rich country unless confronted with evidence of a terrorist link.

But Cuba and Venezuela will have to sit tight for the foreseeable future. The mood in Washington -- and Europe -- has changed dramatically since Sept. 11, and whatever patience there was for presidents who keep ties with violent groups around the world has evaporated.

``The margin of U.S. tolerance for countries that flirt with terrorists and terrorist regimes is much lower,'' says Bernard Aronson, a former head of the U.S. State Department's Latin American affairs office who is close to the Bush administration.

``I don't think the United States will go after Cuba and Venezuela, because we have bigger fish to fry. But the willingness to ignore flirting with violent organizations has gone down significantly, and countries that want to have friendly relations with the United States will need to take that into account.''

It may be no coincidence that Cuban strongman Castro rushed to condemn the terrorist attack, and last week signed 12 U.N. treaties aimed at fighting terrorism.

Or that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez signed a strong Organization of American States resolution backing the U.S. war on terrorism, and rushed to say that Venezuela will guarantee oil supplies to the U.S. market.

DIVISION OF LABOR

Few military analysts believe there is such a thing as a close-knit international terrorist cartel, but we may see the emergence of an international terrorist division of labor, in which violent groups in one country commit crimes for their counterparts in another.

It has happened before: In 1980 when Nicaragua's Sandinista guerrillas decided to kill former dictator Anastasio Somoza in Paraguay, they commissioned Argentine rebels of the Revolutionary People's Army to do the job.

My conclusion: The Bush administration will not cast a wide net that will reach Latin American countries in its war on terrorism.

But, in the aftermath of Sept. 11, the political costs of maintaining friendly ties with violent groups will be higher, and countries that do that will face greater international isolation.

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